Midterm elections will be held in the United States in November. Americans are approaching these elections with a deep sense of division. China is one of the rare reconciliation topics that remain outside of America's political polarization. Whether Democrat or Republican, U.S. political elites are mostly unanimous in stopping China's rise. The "Anti-Chinese Party" is an appropriate characterization to express this unity of political elites who see China as an "existential threat" to the United States. This "Party" united both cautious hawks and reckless hawks under its umbrella.
In the "great power rivalry", the "Taiwan crisis" acts as a very important "leverage" for the U.S. Taiwan's reunification with Mainland China is an absolute must-achieve national goal for Beijing. Although Beijing says unification with Taiwan will take place peacefully, it does not exclude the option of "military intervention". As a matter of fact, the United States does not want Taiwan's voluntary unification with China, even if it does not officially say so. The Anti-Chinese Party, on the other hand, is working hard to escalate and politically reinforce anti-Beijing sentiment in Taiwan.
One of the goals of the Anti-Chinese Party is to have the "1979 Taiwan Relations Act" amended, which is the basis of political relations between the United States and China. The US sees Taiwan as part of China but excludes the forced change of the current situation. The United States does not say that it will not defend Taiwan if China makes a military intervention in Taiwan, and it does not exclude the possibility of defense. This ambiguous approach is called “strategic uncertainty”. This ambiguity and contradiction is one of the most serious problems for Beijing to overcome. The Anti-Chinese Party, on the other hand, wants "strategic clarity" rather than "strategic uncertainty".
U.S. policy includes the development of Taiwan's defense capacity. The Anti-Chinese Party, on the other hand, is in favor of furthering the so-called "Hedgehog strategy". One of the latest initiatives of the Anti-China Party was the "Taiwan Policy Act," passed by the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee last Wednesday with bipartisan support. The bill was drafted by the Committee's Democratic Chairman Bob Menendez and Republican member Lindsey Graham.
The Biden Administration, which argues that it is committed to the "One China" policy, supports some of the articles of the bill, while others find it "dangerous". The bill must be voted on in the Senate and House of Representatives to become law. The bill will come before Biden after these stages. The Anti-Chinese Party, which does not want the voting to be delayed until after the November elections, wants the bill to quickly turn into US policy. However, the Draft Bill is expected to be revised and added to the "2023-National Defense Authorization Law", which is expected to be passed by the end of the year.
The Urgentists of the Anti-Chinese Party want the United States to maintain its military superiority over China and to strengthen Taiwan's defense capacity. The "Chinese influence" is quite high in the 2023 Defense expenditures of the USA, but the "Emergency" finds even this Budget insufficient.
The "Taiwan Policy Law", which is described as a comprehensive revision of the "1979-Taiwan Relations Law", envisages military aid of 6.5 billion dollars to Taiwan within 5 years. The bill includes granting Taiwan "important non-NATO ally" status to speed up and facilitate arms sales. The bill also provides for sanctions if China intervenes in Taiwan. The United States does not have official diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Taiwan is represented in Washington as the “Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office”. In the bill, the phrase "Taiwan Representation" is used. This phrase has a quality that will greatly disturb China.
Analysts point out that the "Taiwan Policy Law", which is defended on the grounds of "deterrence", will increase the possibility of conflict over Taiwan. The Chinese, on the other hand, say that US support for forces defending Taiwan's independence could lead to a war between the US and China.
In mid-October, the 20th Congress of the “Communist Party of China” will be held. The eyes of the world are on this Congress. Chinese Leader Xi Jinping is expected to consolidate his power by obtaining a third 5 years. Of course, there is also the question of raising Jinping's ideological status. It is obvious that the US "Indo-Pacific" and "Taiwan policy" will be the main agenda item of the 20th Congress.