Hakkı Uygur, vice director of the Center for Iranian Studies (IRAM)
U.S. President Donald Trump’s sanctions on Iran aim to eliminate its oil trade, "paralyzing" Iran's economy, thus boosting Trump's reelection hopes, even though most countries oppose these sanctions, said a regional analyst late Thursday.
The first phase of the U.S. sanctions on Iran impacted sectors like automotive, banking, and mining and the second phase will mainly target the country's oil exports, which Iran's economy depends on, Hakkı Uygur, vice director of the Center for Iranian Studies (IRAM), told a panel on "Iran Sanctions, Impacts on Turkey and the Region" organized by the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA) in the Turkish capital Ankara.
In May, Trump unilaterally withdrew his country from the 2015 landmark nuclear deal signed between Iran and the P5 1 group of nations -- the five permanent UN Security Council members: the U.S., Russia, China, Britain, and France, plus Germany. He also announced that he would reinstate sanctions against Tehran, which were lifted by the agreement in exchange for tight restrictions on the country's nuclear program.
The U.S. in August re-imposed the first round of economic sanctions on Iran, which mainly target the country’s banking sector.
Iran said on Friday that a report that eight countries had been granted waivers to U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil showed that Iran's crude was needed and could not be withdrawn from the market. "The waivers granted to these eight countries shows that the market needs Iran's oil and it cannot be pulled out of the market ... I don't know whether these waivers are permanent or temporary ones," state TV quoted Iran's deputy Oil Minister Ali Kardor as saying.Bloomberg reported that U.S. government had agreed to let eight countries, including close allies South Korea and Japan, as well as India, keep buying Iranian oil after it reimposes sanctions on Tehran from next week.US grants eight countries Iran sanctions waivers
Iran says report of US oil waivers shows market needs Iranian crude
The second phase of sanctions, targeting Iran’s energy sector, is set to go into effect on Nov. 5.
"If Trump manages to cut off the country's oil trade, this will lead to a paralyzed Iran economy," Uygur underlined.
However, Uygur said, this is not a good way to bring Iran to the table because the Iranian people know Trump wants to create a victory out of this process before he is up for reelection in 2021.
"Iran has two options,” Uygur explained.
“They will either wait for the end of Trump's term, which is the dominant attitude now, or they will see how the sanctions work. But I can say that Iran's hand is strong this time because almost all countries are against the sanctions."
Uygur also said Turkey, as a neighbor to Iran, wants stability in the region and imports almost half of its oil needs from the country.
"Turkey also imports a significant amount of gas and does trade to Central Asia through Iran," he said.
An Israeli official on Friday called the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Saudi Arabia's consulate in Istanbul "despicable" but said that cementing ties with Gulf states in the struggle against Iran was Israel's overriding concern.In his remarks to radio station 102 FM, Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz did not explicitly say whether his views were those of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government, which has been reticent in commenting on the case.Asked about Khashoggi's death, Steinitz said: "It was a despicable action. It's worthy of all reproach. This was a civilian, a journalist, not a terrorist."He went on to say, however, that Israel's struggle against Iran was more pressing."We have a threat that can become an existential threat - the threat of a nuclear Iran, the threat of terror, the threat of spreading through Syria and Lebanon. And Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, are our allies in recent years against the spread of Iran and against the Iranian nuclear threat," he said. 'Khashoggi’s body was dismembered, dissolved in acid'Saudi prince disparaged Khashoggi in US calls: reportGermany hardening line on Saudi Arabia and KhashoggiArab media covers Turkey's Khashoggi statement
Israeli official says Khashoggi death 'despicable', but Iran greater challenge
Sanction exemption talks between Turkey, US
Kemal Inat, SETA's assistant general coordinator and director of energy studies, warned that Turkey itself will face U.S. sanctions if the country acts against the U.S.' reimposed Iran sanctions.
"Turkey is talking with the U.S. about being exempted from the sanctions, but I don’t think they will be successful. If Trump's main aim is eliminating Iran’s oil trade entirely, then he will definitely want Turkey to stop buying oil from Iran at some point," he said.
The U.S. government has agreed to let eight countries, including close allies South Korea and Japan, as well as India, keep buying Iranian oil after it reimposes sanctions on Tehran from next week, Bloomberg reported on Friday, citing a U.S. official.Iran’s biggest oil customers - all in Asia - have been seeking sanctions waivers to allow them to continue buying some of its oil.Bloomberg reported that close U.S. allies South Korea and Japan had received waivers along with India, which relies heavily on supplies from Iran. A list of all countries getting waivers was expected to be released officially on Monday, Bloomberg said.China says Xi-Trump call was quite positiveA Chinese official told Reuters that discussions with the U.S. government were ongoing and that a result was expected over the next couple of days.“We think Trump will agree to China importing some volumes, similar to the treatment that India and South Korea receive,” Clayton Allen of Height Securities said in a note on Friday.South Korea’s foreign ministry declined to comment, and Japanese officials were not immediately available for comment.Another country that has been seeking a sanctions waiver is Turkey, which takes significant volumes via pipeline from neighboring Iran.Turkey’s Energy Ministry said on Friday it had heard rumors of waivers but added it had not received written notification of any exemption on buying Iran oil after the United States reimposes sanctions on Tehran on Nov. 5.Although some waivers had been expected, crude oil prices fell, with Brent futures down by 10 cents at 0752 GMT to $72.79 per barrel, as the number of waivers granted surprised many traders.Goldman Sachs said it expects Iran’s crude oil exports to fall to 1.15 million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of the year, down from around 2.5 million bpd in mid-2018.
US grants eight countries Iran sanctions waivers