Since we are heading for re-elections in two months, you can say that we returned to the starting point. In a sense, we are. The June 7th election had hatched the deadlock in politics, and despite all the attempts this deadlock couldn't be unlocked. In the sense of relations between political parties, we have entered a moderation period. Don't easily underestimate it. Our multiple-partied life is disabled with extreme conflicts in the domestic conflicts. In his first interview after the elections in 1950, Ismet Inonu said;
"DP members are quite new, we will give them a chance and for the next 2 years we won't open our mouths"; however, this only lasted for 2 months. Yes, the vendetta between CHP and DP started after 2 months...
Thus, in our country, an internal agreement can only be reached over important external political developments, other than coming side by side with sad incidents, like death, with a short-lived honeymoon after the elections. The best known example for this is the Cyprus Peace Operation in 1974. In 1974, the lowest statistics had been obtained from the internal armed conflicts between the left and right wing.
Time passed and the foreign policy stopped having to conform to the domestic policy. On the contrary, it's one of the fields where the conflicts between the parties are experienced intensely.
Thus, putting MHP's unique attitude aside, the kindness and honesty we've encountered in the statements during and after the meetings between AK Party and CHP are important.
Even though it will possibly be decreased in the election rallies, where we got used to everything that was said for 70 days, its permanent effect shouldn't be surprising.
Now, there are three options in front of us; progressing towards the early elections with this government. This is the strong possibility. For this, the Parliament should be called for a special meeting and they should be re-gathered on a date like August 21st in order to make the decision for early elections. MHP's attitude is critical in order to avoid a government change in that meeting and in the decisions made in that meeting.
MHP doesn't want Turkey to head towards elections, with the coalition cabinet, to which four political parties in Turkey will send ministers, to make a decision after the 45 days are automatically over.
The first reason is; if this cabinet, where HDP's ministers will be included, is established, and then it will become responsible for this.
We will experience the same thing we did in the elections for the Speakership of the Parliament.
On the other hand, while Turkey is in the middle of a deepening struggle against PKK, together with the uncertainties, which was caused by the conflict possibility against ISIL and the decision to participate in the coalition, it will be impossible to conduct or exceed issues with such a government.
Even though they claimed at their statements were warped, it was clear since the beginning that MHP executives was going to support the government to continue with the condition of early elections. It's clear that it's impossible for MHP to say yes to a different formula.
Now, the focus will be on the Speakership of Parliament more. Possibly, the Speaker of the Parliament, Ismet Yilmaz will be making a special meeting call, like August 17th, or process the demands of one of the parties.
As of today, if no decision is made for elections within 240 hours, the option, which is not desired and never has been attempted before, in other words, the four-party cabinet, will be established.
It's possible that Prime Minister Davutoğlu or the related committee will be making contact with MHP in order to prevent this. Following that, it's possible for the Speaker of the Parliament to hold meetings with party leaders.
President Erdoğan's “I'm meeting with the Speaker of the Parliament” sentence, while he was replying to questions during the Medal of Honor ceremony for the Chief of Staff Necdet Ozel, is showing us that preparations are being made for all the options.
However, after this pacey and brisk hustle, what's reasonable will be actualized.
It seems that we will be going to the ballot boxes on October 25th or at the latest on November 1st with this cabinet.
Without a doubt, CHP will say, “Since the government couldn't be established, the duty should have been returned or given to us”; however, the practice is showing us that this will not create a response. Watch this polemic for a couple of days, and get ready to witness the ball being passed to the Parliament.
When we take the internal and external developments we are experiencing into consideration, no one can estimate the next step at the present time.
The only thing we can know is; a government will be established by mid-November.
It may be a single party, or may be a coalition whose meetings had been finished with pace and clarity.
In other words, we are almost at the point we started; on June 6, 2015…