I suppose the reason the minds of those who were confused became cleared a little was the parliament speaker election.
It is obvious that those who felt at ease are now a little confused.
Those who say with this election they could see a sign for the coalition think they have been mistaken.
Those who say there is no connection between those two but probably the coalition will be formed with the MHP and those who say it will be formed with CHP are now in doubt.
Is there anyone who knows the answers to these questions?
No, there isn't…
Well, what seems to be happening?
1- After the official assignment, the Prime Minister will probably begin to meet with the parties next Tuesday, and in the first round the picture will become clearer.
In the second round, it will approximately be certain that either the coalition will be formed or, if so, with which parties it will be formed.
2- The commissions the AK Party formed for CHP and MHP studied their lesson very well; they even, one by one, read the election and party declaration of the addressee so that, they will be familiar with where they will agree and where they will differ. According to the latest news, in CHP, Levent Gök started to study on the protocols of the past coalitions with a team as well.
3- As of today, contrary to the accepted belief, the AK Party is equally distant from the two parties. With both of them, the pros and cons of forming a coalition is close to each other.
4- I don't think the main factors that will determine the formation of the coalition are the red lines, for they aren't the musts; in the process we will see that all of them are flexible. The main determinant will be the strong trust that those who come together will maintain for a minimum of 1 year, on the average 2 years, and whether an alliance is formed where each party will shoulder the responsibility or not.
5- In this respect, actually while composing a coalition protocol only as the basic principles and practices, scheduling the protocol can have meaningful and practical values.
So the parties and the public opinion will be knowledgeable about what will be done, when and why… Starting the job with such a step will provide the future coalition a support above the expectations and a positive atmosphere that will last longer.
6- I think another factor that has the power to determine the coalition will be the extraordinary developments in our border within the coming one and a half months.
If either ISIL and PYD/outlawed PKK or both of them cause an intervention of Turkey even if it is limited, this may cause the developments that will shape both the continuation and speed of these coalition negotiations either negatively or positively.
7- The AK Party will be the most relaxed party during the coalition negotiation period, because without it the government cannot be formed, and if again we go to the polls, there is no development that will cause it to get less votes than it got in the last election.
On the other hand, if you don't consider a few tumbledown coalitions during the troublesome periods, CHP wasn't able to come into power for almost 65 years.
From the historical point of view, for MHP, which is a younger party, the situation is similar.
There is no doubt that the base forces them more to be the rulership partner.
In this respect it seems that the CHP is getting ready for negotiations taking into consideration the severe and positive aspects.
MHP is following a closer strategy in which the CHP option is outstanding in the first round, if not; in the last minute they will come into play as an alternative.
8- If no result is taken after Davutoğlu's rounds, no one will be hopeful about the rounds of the CHP leader, Kılıçdaroğlu; it will be assumed that it would serve no purposeother thanwasting time or to watch again what is impossible.
9- If they cannot form a coalition within the legal period of 45 days, it is another problem. According to the 114th and 116th articles of the Constitution, in order to arrange this situation, the President is assigning a Prime Minister and the Council of Ministers are formed with the members who will be given according to the rates of the political parties in the parliament. Namely, it is a constitutional must to form “a mixed cabinet in the front” when the period of 45 days is over.
At the same time, it means that the ministers from MHP and HDP will be around the same table and when the possible coalition options are over, before the 45 days are over, at least with the votes of the AK Party and MHP or just as MHP stood aside during the parliament speaker election, out of the “automatic cabinet” issue, we will go to the polls with the Parliamentary decision.
The atmosphere and options in Ankara are this way for now.