Early election or a coalition? - YAŞAR TAŞKIN KOÇ

Early election or a coalition?

The question is constant, but an answer is yet to be found.

The pursuit for that answer is continuing.

Newly elected parliamentarians are slowly starting to arrive at the Parliament building.

They are walking on the red carpet laid in the Hall of Honor, and starting their process from the first table.

After the identity phase, the cheerful Parliament officials carefully take their fingerprints on adjoining tables.

Then, the welcoming procedure begins; Parliament card, car card, banking transactions, phone, badge, TBMM (Grand National Assembly of Turkey) publications.

Only a few parliamentarians arrived until now; however, will this knot be untied by the time the rest of them show up and start giving their fingerprints and receiving their car cards?

They are pondering the same question; will it be a coalition or early election?

Especially for the ones, who had been elected for the first time, an early election must be the last thing they'd want.

However, it can't be helped.

They have 45 days to establish the government after the official time starts, in order to avoid early elections.

Though, there is no need to prolong it.

After the Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu begins his tours, the true colors of the whole thing will be revealed and the result from that will not change.

Since the trio, other than AK Party, cannot and will not come together, or, neither MHP or HDP wants to be seen under the same roof (either from the outside or as partners), there are only two options;

A coalition between AK Party and CHP, or, AK Party and MHP.

This is the frequent discussion in every corridor in Ankara.

It's difficult to understand or recognize from the outside; however, there are negotiations, which will all be heard eventually in the end, ongoing between the parties and intermediaries.

So much so that, if the official contacts start tomorrow, the sides will already know what each other will say.

It's not easy, however. If two parties come to an agreement, the establishment of the government won't even have to wait for negotiation tours.

Then, does the course of events and signals say something?

First of all, since all the parties already know that the possibility of an early election is as strong as the coalition, they don't want to be seen responsible for the failure of actualizing any of the possibilities to form a government, when they return to the squares as asking for votes if the early election is to happen.

They are trying to at least carry the responsibility of the early election decision equally. Thus, the statements on the first night of the elections turned into “Our doors are open to everyone" within three days.

Pre-conditions are being pulled back substantially, or, either being mentioned less or unpronounceable.

AK Party, who has the confidence of 41% of the votes and sees that no government can be established without them, is starting the negotiations with ease.

Both CHP and MHP, who know the risks of being a partner of the coalition, know that if one of them is left outside of the coalition, than that one will possess the partial guarantee of being able to increase their own votes in the next elections, while the coalition partner will be worn out.

HDP saw that it's almost impossible for them to be included in or be the supporter of any government alternatives, and after all, they are already at ease for being the most successful party in these elections.

Being at ease is not an obstacle for any of the party to forget that they all share the necessity of forming the government.

They are already making plans for what will change with a couple of points, if the government cannot be established and if we go to an early election.

What will happen if a coalition comes out of the early election, even if the voting rates by small amounts?

I guess they won't be indecisive again and go for another early election…

It's clear that there will be two different governments, two different approaches and models for the AK Party – CHP coalition and the AK Party – MHP coalition.

Baykal's quotes from his meeting with President Erdoğan the other day, and the President's statements yesterday were both encouraging for the parties to consider the coalition options before the early election.

However, as the day ended today, there were still no concrete coalition possibilities in Ankara.

Yes, it's still early; the politicians are still putting on their poker faces and hiding their cards.

Maybe that's why Ankara is still under rain even in the middle of June.





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