If there is a coalition…. - ÜNSAL BAN

If there is a coalition….

The picture before the elections is clear:

Other than AK Party, no one has a chance to become a single rulership.

If they can shatter the government, they will come together under a coalition and together they will ruin the country!

This their only “realist” promise!

Thus, everyone that supports this are speaking of the “benefits of the coalition” (!), especially “their new joint candidate” Kemal Derviş.

Our coalition experiences

Let's have a look:

We can see that the growth rates under the coalition periods are; average 1.2% in the 1999 – 2002 period, and, average 2.7% in the 1991 – 1994 period.

In the same way, it's necessary to state that the inflation entered our lives during the multi-party coalition period in 1971-1980. Besides, it's remarking to see that the Dollar exchange rate had been devalued in 1978, 1994 and 2001, under coalition governments.

In a sense, we can see that during the coalition periods, which is the main reason behind inconsistency and uncertainty, the average rulership-preservation time is quite low. So much that, between 1991 and 2002, there were 9 governments established and the lives of those governments were 1.2 years. Moreover, five of the governments established in that same period had a lifespan of less than a year.

What happens if there is a coalition?

A coalition, the essential factor of instability, will cause our country to be vulnerable against internal and external shocks, while causing an increase in economic fragility. Thus, all the gains in the last 12-13 years will be lost in a second. The reflection of these on the public will be felt in a short time.

Inflation (a sudden increase in the prices) will start, salaries will remain unchanged and life will get expensive. In this case, the fixed incomed group, which forms the majority of the population, will be affected the most.

In the same way, all the projects we've started in the past couple of years and which will modernize our country, will be left unfinished. While all the investments towards the projects will be wasted, all the gains expected after its completion will become a dream.

Moreover, with the systematic risk, which will be revealed after the coalition, exchange rates will suddenly be on the rise. Following an increase in the exchange rates, while the raw material prices and production costs increase, the GDP and income per capita, in terms of the dollar, will regress to the levels at the beginning of the 2000s.

The disorder will pave the way for a decrease in foreign investments directly. Due to the weakening in the investments, it would become impossible to form new employment, and unemployment will be on an irrepressible increase after the existing investments leave our country.

Actualizing national projects like local planes and cars, will become impossible due to lack of resources. The nationalization attempts in the defense industry will be prevented and we will continue importing strategic defense equipment. On top of all this, since we will be entering a difficult period in terms of economy, the public incomes will be on the decrease. While this causes a cut in healthcare, education and other social spending, the country will suddenly regress 20 years.

Long story short; if a coalition comes out from the forthcoming elections, the country will drift towards an unstoppable regression period. The fixed incomed people, and, the low and mid-class people, in terms of socio-economics, will be affected the most from this process, where we enter a bottleneck state in terms of economics. Ultimately, with all the negativities, we will be forced to knock on IMF's door and return to the days where we need 1 billion dollars.


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