Grexit-Brexit… Would England leave the EU? - ÜNSAL BAN

Grexit-Brexit… Would England leave the EU?

As Greece's, the spoiled child of Europe, debt crisis continues, we can see that the agenda in the region is shifting from the South to the North.

Within this context, “Grexit”, which is mentioned by everyone lately, has given way to “Brexit”.

As you know, the “Grexit” term is related with Greece's exit from the Euro Region and its return back to using the Drachma, rather than the Euro, as a currency.

As for the “Brexit” term, it's stating “Britain's departure from the European Union”, which was being mentioned for a while now, but recently appeared again on the agenda in England after the elections.

Even though the problems experienced by the European Union mainly affected the Southern European countries, we can see that England got its share from the stagnancy that is dominant in the regional economy. In England, which is not in the Euro Region and still uses the Pound as their currency, talk is circulating that being in the European Union is causing more harm than benefits.

We can also see that the politicians, who want to turn this situation into their favor, are already making various promises on the matter of leaving the European Union. For example, Cameron, who triumphed in the recent election, had made a promise about organizing a referendum, which will shape England's EU membership, before the end of 2017.

To leave the EU or not to leave EU

The ones who are on the side of England's departure from EU are pointing at the burden on the taxpayers due to the immigrant problem, and claiming that if England leaves the EU they will make serious gains. On the other hand, EU supporters are approaching the matter from a completely different angle.

Such that, they have the opinion that if England leaves the EU, an inconsistency will be dominant in the economy and millions of people will lose their jobs.

Then, what happens if England leaves the EU?

When we evaluate the possibility of England's departure from the EU generally from the point of economic structure, we can see that their GDP might experience a 2 – 2.5 % reduction on a yearly basis within the context of the decline in the foreign investments and the weakening in the foreign trade volume. What's more, after taking into consideration that England does not continue the free trade agreement with the EU, it's guessed that the possible loss in the GDP might be between 6 – 9 %.

In the same way, we should state that in the sense of employment the EU membership has serious gains. It's being stated that England's EU membership is a main factor for the various international companies, especially in the finance and auto sector, preferences towards them. Within this context, if England leaves the EU, those companies might carry their investments to different countries. In such a case, there might be a 3 million deficit in the employment.

From the point of immigrants, we should approach the matter from a different angle. In England, there are already various visa limitations in order to make it difficult for non-EU immigrants. On the other hand, the migration from EU-member countries cannot be stopped due to various agreements. Such that, as of January-September 2014, in total 624,000 people migrated to England. While 294,000 of those were from non-EU countries, 251,000 were from EU countries. Within this context, if England leaves the EU, they might establish limitations and confront the migration from EU-member countries.

As a result, we can see that the “Brexit” matter, which has serious costs from the point of England, might also cause destructive results from the point of the EU. When we approach the matter from this angle, we can see that neither England nor the EU will be able to finance the losses that might be revealed after England's departure.

The possibility of “Brexit” is quite low.


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