Fragile Countries and Turkey… - ÜNSAL BAN

Fragile Countries and Turkey…

It's been over a month since the general elections were held in June 2015.

While arguing over the possible coalition models and “re-election” possibility, we are also putting an effort into finding “the best for Turkey”.

In this period, where the area surrounding us is covered in “fire”, we need to act with the knowledge that the stability in Turkey is important for all of humanity, not just for the people living in Anatolia.

Some circles, which are feeding on conflicts-wars-uneasiness, are busy with doing whatever they can to disrupt Turkey's perception.

Crises scenarios are everywhere, while international institutions are presenting negative reports, as they've done in the recent period, directed at the structure of our economy.

According to those institutions; the risks directed at Turkey's economic structure are increasing gradually.

Also, the possible effects of the external and internal shocks, which might be revealed, over the country economy is also expanding.

Based on that, it's being claimed that Turkey possesses a “more fragile economy than the other developing countries, which are dealing with various political and geopolitical issues (like Russia, Venezuela and Brazil)”.

As for the internal harm focuses, which are bringing forth these reports, they are trying to form a perception that the presented justifications are only valid for Turkey.

However, there is a problem that concerns all countries.

For example…

It's necessary to state that; the U.S. Central Bank FED's plan to make a change in their interest policies, which had been highlighted in the report, will be causing an increase in the debt costs for all countries, not just Turkey.

In the reports, we can see that a slowdown tendency is mentioned in the growth levels. However, we can see that with the 2.9% growth rate in 2014 and a 2.3% in the first quarter of 2015, Turkey is overtaking many developing and developed countries.

Thus, it's necessary to state that the growth matter that was mentioned in the reports is forming a risk for every country within the global economic structure, not just the Turkish economy.

Then, who are the fragile countries?

It's possible to say that the risks are increasing for every country, due to the conjuncture we are all in, including Greece and China. The economic dead end in Greece, the slowdown tendency in the once-bright star, China, cannot be prevented despite all the precautions. In this sense, we need to note that a possible crisis in China, where the heavy-landing risk is increasing gradually, might have an effect on the entire world.

In the same way, in the U.S., which couldn't reach flatness despite trillions of dollars of liquidity provided to the real economy, the worries related with the employment markets and real estate sector's progress are being preserved. While the FED is trying to administer the uncertainty process with the statements they've made on the matter of increasing the interest, we can see that if the interests are increased too early, it might reverse the acceleration provided in the U.S. economy recently.

Alongside all this, from the point of countries like Russia, Venezuela and Mexico, which are petrol-exporting countries, we can see that the weakening petrol prices are reducing the petrol revenues and causing problems in the payment balances of the countries. Within this sense, in the case that petrol prices continue on low levels, it will increase the problems for related countries.

As a result, we can see that in this conjuncture, the risks are increasing, not just for Turkey, but for many developed and developing countries.

Separating Turkey, and especially “discrediting” Turkey, is pointing at different intentions.

Anyone, who doesn't point out the fact that our country “is relatively in a good condition”, has bad intentions!





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