Slowly, a new leaf is being turned in the Mesopotamia region at a time in which existing maps have become disordered. Originally being founded as artificial states, Iraq and Syria will never be the old Iraq and Syria again. This is very clear. I don't know how long they will survive, but at the moment these two artificial states will continue to stand in appearance. However, they are working on formulas to restructure these countries as many smaller countries. Iraq is currently presenting a picture made up of three sections; Kurds in the north, Shiite in the south and Sunnis in the middle. The affairs ongoing in Syria indicate that the country will be divided into three parts; Nusayris in the west, Kurds in the north, and Sunnis in the east. I believe the phase will not be limited with Syria and Iraq, and soon Lebanon will be included too. If we take into consideration the developments in Yemen; the ethnic and denominational disintegration has the potential to take over the Arabian Peninsula and the Gulf in the short and long run.
It is very obvious that this phase is threatening Turkey too. This is a very frustrating state. If the Middle East goes into a multipartite restructuring, Turkey will be affected immediately. Now lets discuss this scenario further.
It is evident that Turkey has a fragile nature in terms of the Alevi and the Kurdish questions. Turkey possibly tried to overcome this wave of events, currently happening, by developing a solidarity and integration network. This was the definition of the “Zero Problem with Neighbors” policy through a democratic legitimacy by downgrading Israel's sphere of influence. Supporting Egypt's democratization, an effective Palestine policy, and the relations developed with Iraq and Kurdistan were the first steps taken. The fragile grounds caused by the Kurdish and Alevi questions within were tried to be restored.
Today, in practice, we can see that all these initiatives are put out of commission. First of all, a strong Shiite resistance took place in Iraq. On the other hand, Bashar Assad's government turned its back on the democratic integration. In time the civil war in Syria reached a peak and entered an irreversible state. The pro-Ikhwan democratism, which developed in the Sunni region, was crushed in Egypt and the Sunni region was burdened with the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) menace. Turkey was pushed to be included into this state.
And then, the physical Kurdish formation in northern Syria gave birth to the Kurdish deviation. The reconciliation process regressed. Terrorism escalated. Qandil-Rojawa was made to look pleasant using the anti-ISIL antipathy in the world public opinion. Kurdish terrorism was polished up to look sympathetic. And even worse, the Peoples' Democratic Party's (HDP) deceptive Turkey politics was tried to be unified on a real scale with Alevi radicalism and Kurdish politics. We can say that their progress shouldn't be underestimated. To cut it short; the picture is grim...
Russia and Iran's direct intervention initially seems like a negative development that deepens the already visible problems for Turkey. Maybe in the short term. But in the medium term, I believe the wind will turn the other way around, especially with the presidential elections expected to happen in 2016 and the Republicans expected to win. First of all, Obama's instable Middle East politics will come to an end. We know that the Republicans, unlike the Democrats, give priority to the Middle East in line with their pro-Israel views. Today we see that the physical state in Mesopotamia has gone beyond the acceptable limits of the Republicans. Of course the tangled up Muslim Middle East relieves Israel the most. Yet, this state of relief can only be said for the period before Iran was involved in the region with the support of Russia. Unavoidably, an intervention will of course cause Israel to become restless. Russia doesn't have a chance to leave the region in the short term. It is impossible for Russia to strengthen itself without Iran. It is uncertain how long this cooperation will continue smoothly. In the middle term, it isn't possible for Israel to accept Iran, under Russia's shadow, to expand into its soft spot. On the other hand, the Gulf countries and Saudi, in a serious tone, have made clear that they will not accept the intervention initiative made by the Russian-Iran alliance.
Ostracizing the indigent solution and joining the Iran-Russia line again, things seem to be going right for the Kurdish deviation. The Kurdish deviation is making use of the gap created by the overlooking attitude of Obama's hesitant Middle East policies, also described as the lame duck. Yet, they don't see that this is temporary. It isn't hard to see that 2016 will bring failure to them. Let's not be surprised if they experience a sudden collapse. Their memories are very weak. If they looked back to 1999 they would remember that their leader was suddenly packaged and their old friends Damascus, Moscow and Tehran turned their backs on them. If only they remembered this, then they wouldn't be so sure of themselves...