The political calendar is ticking. In a short time, the new deputies will take their oath and after the election of the parliamentary speaker, the parliament will commence functioning. After this, the coalition scenarios will begin to be put into practice.
The risk is; if the coalition initiatives do not give any results, after 45 days, a snap election will be inevitable. Because looking at the political blurriness today, we can easily say that; such an election will not be beneficent for Turkey. The thing that the political parties should do is act with a sense of responsibility and form an acceptable coalition as soon as possible.
To be honest, on my behalf and my own part, since I think that the political coalition culture is quite weak in Turkey, I am not expecting wonderful results from the coalition that will be formed. Besides this, in order to meet the conjuncture that we are in today, for those who escape from the responsibility or those who are profiteers, I can't help but think that with a political narrow mindedness they are disabled.
For now, the picture doesn't look good. The maximalism of the political parties, especially those which are in the 60 % “bloc” is going on.
In terms of the political sciences, the maximalism indicates a situation in which it is impossible to associate by forming a political coalition.
In the election area, we can understand the maximalism. But, just after the election, if a coalition seems inevitable, what must be done is leaving the maximalist account and statements behind as soon as possible and following the norms in the base of real politics.
It seems that most of the parties could not reach this point yet.
I can understand this situation for HDP. If you pay attention to its statement, HDP's structuring and directions do not seem related with coming to power in anyway. There makes the paradox of the politics that may sound quite weird to the people: Any of the actors' having strong hands in politics is not a natural function to come to power. As it is understood several times, rulership is not a status, but a very complicated network of relations.
Here, coming to power as a status emphasizes shouldering a heavy burden through responsibility and facing the corrosion. Dialectically, coming to power requires considering a possible swing in the rulership relations. However, refusing to share this responsibility with maximalist excuses can give a chance to the actor that is out “to be capable before coming to power too”. HDP's 13% support extremely gives it this luxury today.
On the other hand, provided that especially the Kobani issue is as a milestone, it can easily be claimed that a lot of signs appeared to think HDP's real actual status and interest move is in a Pan-Kurdist axis. In the context of the continuation of the resolution process, many things on the account of AK Party could be subject to criticism.
But actually, the HDP didn't do any less on the way to breaking up through the Turkeyfication policy. In the base of HDP's Turkeyfication claim, it reveals that attaching itself to the Anti-Erdoğanist bloc that is negative on the Kurdish problem is at least indirectly HDP's request to break ties with the AK Party.
The result is obvious: today, as it is expected from the AK Party and the HDP to be the parties which can take further steps to overcome the most essential problem of Turkey, the Kurdish problem, they have been the parties standing the farthest from each other.
What is more difficult to understand is the status of MHP. Even if it could have the success it hoped, MHP, which increased its power, has two options in the front. It will either be in the “60 % bloc” with the CHP and the HDP; or it will be together with the AK Party. The first possibility; it cannot be certain but, seems quite difficult. In order to form a coalition with the AK Party, MHP has a maximal condition: certainly giving up the resolution process and Dear President's passivation. If the AK Party forms a coalition with the MHP accepting these conditions, it will dissolve all the potentials bringing the party into existence and make it grow. The race that it started against the MHP has already made the AK Party to a great extent parallel with the MHP. A possible coalition between these two parties seems to weaken the AK Party a little more.
I cannot say that I am evaluating it as being positive that some business environments through simple economizing are forcing this coalition option.
As the only meaningful coalition possibility remains the AK Party-CHP-HDP coalition, here, CHP's position will be quite determining. The possibility of an approach between the AK Party and the HDP seems to come true if the CHP intervenes. If HDP wants to be out of this, the AK Party- CHP coalition will be inevitable. The AK Party gives the impression that it provided the transition to a statement which is close to normal. Is the CHP ready for this by way of its necessities? By watching, we will see whether this happens as well…