Will Türkiye go with NATO or Sochi? - SÜLEYMAN SEYFI ÖĞÜN

Will Türkiye go with NATO or Sochi?

If we look at the areas of instability that emerged along the lines leading from West Europe to East Asia, we will see that they are directly aimed at destroying China’s expansion in the continent and along the waterways. It would be wrong to evaluate this simply as China's being crushed or drowned. This is not the Super Bowl. The matter is with which power the accumulation process in China will be associated. More precisely, the matter is Europe’s attachment to Asia. Let us elaborate. 


If we were to look at the U.K.’s economy today, it quickly becomes clear that the picture is not pleasant at all. The U.K. is no longer an economically productive power like it was in the mid-19th century. Its gross national product (GNP) has been determined as $3 trillion. Surely, this figure is not to be underestimated. But when compared with Germany's $4.2 trillion GNP, it becomes clear that Germany significantly outranks the U.K.’s economy. A difference of $1 trillion is too important to neglect. Additionally, it needs to be taken into consideration that the U.K.’s economy is a (current) deficit economy, while Germany’s is a surplus economy. The 2020 data for U.K.’s economy reports a 10-percent recession, and that a recession of this extent happened for the first time since 1709. Public borrowing rates in 2021 reached the highest level in the last 58 years. Germany’s economic shocks in recent years are not to be overlooked. But in comparison, it can easily be said that the U.K.’s economy is in a much worse state than Germany’s economy. 


But more importantly, despite seeing some harm in recent periods, the rising trade volume between Germany and China is unavoidable. The increase rate in 2021 is about 15 percent. This makes China Germany’s biggest trade partner. Though Germany is in a deficit in this trade, it is able to balance the difference with its advantageous position in the U.S. market. 


The real matter is about taking control over the Silk Road, which connects China to Europe. If Germany and China, as the world’s two most productive powers, and in the general sense, the EU-China connection continues on its ordinary course, it is very clear that the Atlantic and Pacific will fall along the sidelines. 


The current NATO-Russia tensions that broke out in Eurasia, through Ukraine, should be discussed within the general frame above. This is an optical illusion-filled reflection of Atlantic (the U.S., Canada, and the U.K.) and Pacific (Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zeland) powers’ efforts to eliminate a process developing between Europe and Asia, which will form a new center of gravity for the world if left alone. While it seems as though the one they want to punish is Russia, in reality, it is first Germany and second France. The ambivalent state Germany is experiencing, as mentioned earlier, is that it makes up for its relations with China with its advantageous position in the U.S. and U.K. markets. Otherwise, there is no way that they do not see the results of not having any energy. Meanwhile, France is aware that without NATO, it cannot possibly recover its position which was shaken by China’s expansion in Africa. It shares the same fate as Germany and is walking on thin ice. 


The tension processes are being implemented in at least four layers. First, the Anglo-American bloc seeks to collapse the Euro region.  They seek to build a new Europe centered around Poland, which holds a historical grudge against both Russia and Germany, towards the Black Sea, and which includes East Europe – if possible, they are thinking about including Türkiye as well. This is drowning the EU. More concretely, by getting Germany to establish an army, they are dooming and forcing it to the Anglo-American bloc on a militarist basis. They are developing new consumption items, new fields of expenditure for their economy. The second layer is taking shape on a line that is forming through the Caspian, Turkestan, Pakistan, and India. The events in Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and the Caucasus is in relation to establishing reign over the Silk Road’s circulation system. The third layer is an Israel-based, Arab nationalism-backed formation that targets Türkiye, which is converging with China, while continuing second-degree balance policies with Iran, and maintaining relations with Russia. The fourth layer is the direct suppression of China in the Pacific. I will not discuss this any further as this is an entirely different subject. However, I need to specifically underline that Japan’s armament here is extremely critical. Let us not forget that there is only a ceasefire between Russia and Japan. If the Anglo-American bloc risks breaking out a third world war, a war between Russia and Japan can easily set this on fire. 


What will Türkiye decide? Will it continue relations with NATO? Will it maintain the Sochi spirit? This is one of the critical elements. Hence, the trilateral summit in Tehran is vital. If this summit results in powerful solidarity that simultaneously satisfies all parties, the subjects of discussion in the upcoming days will be entirely different. 


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