What's going on behind the scenes of the Russia-Ukraine war? - SÜLEYMAN SEYFI ÖĞÜN

What's going on behind the scenes of the Russia-Ukraine war?

Capitalism is the most irrational network of structures witnessed by history, despite claims arguing the exact opposite. There are surprising transitions between rationality and irrationality. Lagos and chaos do not separate in real life as they do in writing. On the contrary, something we find rational is suddenly surrounded by other irrational things - very much the way modern science and the logical structure of technology, which is loaded with the product of modern science, meet at an irrational phenomenon like war. Hence, in the capitalist world, it’s not easy for anything to maintain its purity, its innocence. Like the poet says, everything is contaminated.

I make this reminder because of the events based around the known food and energy crisis. U.S. President Joe Biden and his supporters divided the world in half like a watermelon. This is a strictly black-and-white separation. On one side you have the states and nations that are declared to be members of the Democrats Club and members of the Autocrats Club on the other side. The Anglo-American bloc-led Democrats Club is heavily pushing the Autocrats Club, led by China and Russia, including Hungary and Türkiye. They experience one economic embargo and sanction threat after another.

The democratic values cluster is the point where political mind and morale intersect. Accordingly, autocracies describe the irrational sphere. Sure. The matter should be related to how this rational political claim is conducted or implemented. How can intervening in the course of the goods and services in the world in order to defend democratic values be explained through logic? There’s more. These interruptions can be considered provisional as well. The desire is claimed to be to push Russia into economic hardship so that it would give up and withdraw from Ukraine. However, the course of events reveals the opposite. Russia’s revenues seem to have increased since the war started. The Western companies in Russia that supposedly closed down are continuing to operate with different signs or through neighboring countries. In other words, Russia is not experiencing any hardship like claimed. Russia started by guaranteeing two major buyers like China and India. It increased fuel and natural gas transport to them at a respectively low price. In other words, Russia chose to pile it high and sell it cheaply in the east. China and India started to import more than what they needed from Russia. Taking advantage of the opportunity, these two economies undertook the role of supplier. This time, other states adhering to the sanctions, including Europe, started importing Russian fuel and natural gas from them at much higher prices. Those imposing the sanctions had no choice this time but to make a nonsensical decision such as switching to a price cap. Russia is carrying on its course with great confidence. It struck the heaviest blow on the petrodollars system, shifting to a new payment regime in Rubles. Though a panicking Europe declared it rejects this regime, it surrendered by means of using indirect trade networks. Russia struck the death blow in response to the late start price cap decision. This happened right on the eve of winter. It completely cut off the Nord Stream, which will further cripple Europe. 

Now, let's stop and think. We already know that capitalism is built on the principle of maximizing profit. This is what price regimes serve. High pricing means high profitability. So, when does the price of a good or service go up? One of the main reasons for this is a disorder in circulation or limited supply. The war between Russia and Ukraine caused both. First, production was globally reduced because of the pandemic.  Just as the world thought we got rid of the pandemic, things are getting back on track, production will pick up, they broke out the war. They broke the supply chains. They hiked prices through indirect and artificial traffic. OPEC did not agree to increasing the supply. This was supposedly the reason behind Biden's Middle East tour. It didn't work. Did it not work, or was it made to fail intentionally? Who knows! But considering these developments, I can't help but ask some questions and share them here. 

We saw how the pandemic generated mind-blowing profits for the pharmaceutical and logistics industries. 

Does throwing the dear country Ukraine in Russia's lap show the time has now come for the energy and war industries? While it seemed like Russia was the issue, was the real focus to collapse the Euro region, the EU, primarily Germany, and more importantly, to cut EU-Russia-China ties, which show potential for development and form a new center of gravity? Russia found a suitable way out for itself. It at least succeeded in turning the pressure into an opportunity. What about China, which has now decided to focus on the national market? What about the EU, primarily Germany, and secondly France, which is helplessly seeking austerity measures? Let's not suffice with the reflections in the mirror. Everything is happening behind the mirror.   


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