Trump, Europe and Russia - SÜLEYMAN SEYFI ÖĞÜN

Trump, Europe and Russia

Europe came to the fore post-World War II as the product of a very interesting formation. We know that the U.S. hegemony took shape after the war. Accordingly, the U.K. withdrew behind the stage and left its place to the U.S. This switch is quite often evaluated incorrectly. The process in question is not the U.K.'s withdrawal from the history stage, but its aligning with the U.S., the true victor of the war – along with its dominions – and giving it prominence to replenish its decreased power.

We can consider this new formation, which we can call the Atlantic bloc, as a formation with multiple initiatives. One of the actual dynamics of the initiative was to include Continental Europe, primarily Germany and France, under an effective control network. This control network included getting Europe back up on its feet through various funding, particularly the Marshall Plan Aid, and turning it into a production and consumption pool. The Atlantic bloc was doing this through euro-dollar operations and was holding it under close watch in the energy issue, the continent's most fragile aspect. Military dependency was on NATO. In the meantime, an Eastern Europe under Soviet control was held over Europe's head like Damocles' Sword.

Europe was completely intimidated by these policies. Yes, it was picking itself up and getting back on its feet. But at the same time, it was also being pressured. (An example to Germany being pressured in every stage it is in a growth trend that forces the limits assigned to it: In the early 1970s, it was stopped with an artificial oil price increase at a time when it gave 40 billion Marks extra. A similar incident is the suppression of the “unbalanced” growth – as considered by the system – of Japan between 1980 and 1990, which is condemned to a similar fate in the Pacific.) De Gaulle and Adenauer strived to overcome these. Finally the European Union Project was put into effect step by step.

One of the most critical developments in the EU's history is the close relations Wily Brandt established with the Soviets. I personally think this was an attempt the Atlantic bloc could never accept, but also failed to prevent. If the EU managed to succeed to an extent, this close relationship was one of the most important supports. The Atlantic bloc's response to this was to enlarge the crack between China and Russia and tear China away from Russia.

The collapse of the Soviet system from the start of the 1990s brought some new opportunities to the Atlantic bloc's European policies. They joined Eastern Europe and many other old Eastern European countries to the EU system and doomed it to great costs. But the new picture also activated Germany's imperial historical reflexes. It became involved in the division of the Balkans. The Atlantic bloc also took advantage of the awakening of these reflexes. It particularly encouraged the rise of tension between Russia and Germany. It got Germany to join the Ukraine adventure. Then the Brandt doctrine was collapsed. We can say that the objective of the Democrat policies in the U.S. was to distance Europe – and mainly Germany – from Russia. I believe what is promised to Germany here is cheap, abundant and high-quality Gulf oil. The Arab Spring being a policy activated based on this also needs to be evaluated on this axis. I believe that the EU clinging to the Kurdism card is related to taking the energy route away from Turkey, which is challenging Europe.

As for Russia, it strengthened its ties with China in the Pacific and received all kinds of attacks with an energetic objection. It increased its power in Ukraine. It invaded Crimea and increased its power in the Black Sea. And in the latest stage, it made an effective intervention in Syria. It first aligned with Iran. Then, it took steps on the path of building a very serious energy corridor with Turkey, which has been pestered by the Atlantic bloc. The latest Moscow agreement and the period that followed ruined all of the Atlantic bloc's plans.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's rapprochement policy with Russia is making the Democrats and Europe go mad. In the meantime, Germany is picking itself up, followed by France. There are signals of rapprochement with Russia once again.

Let us see what Trump will do? He has a standing against him – even if each one has a different motive – the Russia (which has nothing to lose), Turkey and Iran bloc. The recent strange deaths, accidents, terrorist attacks that have been coming one after the other indicate that the tension is ongoing. Trump is either going to avoid clashing with this bloc and make concessions to set another game or he is going to give into the pressures and cause tensions to escalate.


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