Did the Russia-Ukraine war “break out” or was it “instigated”? It seems like the latter is true. Political slyness led by the U.S. and the U.K. signals the prelude of this war. We experienced a process in which all conditions were directly prepared by this group to ensure Russia would attack Ukraine. If we recall, the U.S.-U.K. coalition did everything in its power to make this “likely” war “destined,” let alone prevent it. In fact, it saw no harm in even announcing a calendar for the war.
It was expected that Ukraine would show a great level of resistance that even Russia did not take into account, and turn the war into a quagmire, into Afghanistan, that would allow no advancement for Russian armies. In the meantime, a series of harsh sanctions would topple Russian President Vladimir Putin. The media, which is almost under complete Western control, was mobilized extensively for this end.
Initially, yes, the Russian army that lacked war experience messed up and demonstrated some major tactical and strategic mistakes. But they might just not know the Russians enough. It did not take them long to recover. A friend and colleague who knows Russia well told me that this is a Russian trait: To compensate for mistakes as soon as possible, regardless of the price. Reports from the fronts confirm this as well. The Russian army is slowly taking over control in the Donbas area. A few critical centers are about to fall. Once this is ensured, we will see Russia achieve its goal on a vast front to the east of the Dnieper River. Meanwhile, we see that the unconditional military support promises made to Ukraine are still waiting to be fulfilled. Furthermore, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky, whom the media tried to portray as a hero, is starting to reveal that he is not up to the task. Lately, he has been venting about the West for fooling him.
As for Russia, it does not seem to be as impacted by the sanctions as previously thought. Its natural gas and fuel oil export revenues have skyrocketed, contrary to the anticipated reduction. The reduced demand boosted prices. In the early days of the war, U.S. President Joe Biden had claimed that 1 U.S. dollar is equivalent to 200 rubles, and it would further increase. I wonder if his face flushes when he sees the ruble-dollar parity today? Under pressure, Russia took steps that would deeply shake the petrodollar system and made payments by rubble mandatory in trade. Meanwhile, companies that were said to have left Russia changed their name and are currently continuing their operations underhandedly. There is an operation in Russia that will both finance the war and maintain their buying power. Now let us ask honestly: Who is winning?
It might be quite early to declare who won. This is a question for the future. But we can easily claim who is losing. The EU is losing at the first degree. In other words, an organization that is centered around Germany, France, and Italy. Despite all his insignificance, French President Emmanuel Macron tried to avoid involvement from the start. Though Italy initially seemed to be answering Anglo-American-based calls, it shortly took a turn and made efforts to end the war. Germany’s situation was the worst. In the coalition likened to a tri-colored traffic light, the peaceful Greens took to the forefront of militarism and Anglo-Americanism. The Social Democrats, who comprise the main body, on the other hand, were stuck between. Germany is still unable to find a solution as the power that incurred the greatest loss from the war. Lastly, the leaders of this trio, Emmanuel Macron, Mario Draghi, and Olaf Scholz, accompanied by Romanian leader Klaus Iohannis, visited Zelensky. This visit was likely a persuasion tour, saying, “give in so we can all rest.” This was a formula underlined by Kissinger in Davos as well. It shouldn’t be difficult to guess the change of color in Zelensky’s face upon these suggestions.
The Anglo-American bloc wasted no time to respond. Immediately after the visit by this trio, Boris Johnson was in Ukraine. He quite likely suggested to Zelensky to continue the war, going on at length about how essential Ukraine is in an alternative Europe that will be run and governed by the U.K. and suggested Ukraine use the weapons they will provide and thwart an attack against Russia through Kherson, which is extremely critical for the E40 Waterway. Zelensky, who failed to get what he wanted to date, complained about the trio to Johnson. We shall see in the following days whether he accepted the offer. It’s not like he has any other option.
Time is working against the West, and particularly against Europe, which is experiencing a political mental block. Surely we don’t expect Macron to say it openly, but I can bet that he is thinking at least three times daily that “The EU is brain dead.”