The assassination and the aftermath - SÜLEYMAN SEYFI ÖĞÜN

The assassination and the aftermath

We can estimate that the heinous assassination in Ankara, which occurred on the eve of the trilateral meeting in Moscow, will have crucial results. Let us look at them.

Recent developments showed that Russia's presence in the Middle East is not confined to Syria. Russia is also taking steps to boost its military capacity Iraq and Iran. Its maritime power in the Eastern Mediterranean also makes this position of Russia as powerful as possible. Its rapprochement with Turkey completes the picture. As we analyze the picture as a whole, we see that Russia has the most effective position in this region in its history. In a way, Russia's desire and doctrine of gaining access to warm waters, which is the country's historical claim, has been actualized today.

We may consider this as an extremely negative development for the Atlantic bloc. If one day it happens, Russia has very strong cards in the new sharing of the Middle East. In response to a question of whether developments threaten the U.S. presence in the Middle East, the U.S. State Department spokesman said, "No, the U.S. is not excluded, but is still in the game.” Even this question and answer clearly show the distress that the U.S. is experiencing. It clearly demonstrates how Democrats and their politics of maintaining dominance in the region through proxy wars have failed. The Russian expansionism which the Atlantic bloc condones, saying "let it be tired and exhausted" with toothless policies, has gained a serious dimension now. It seems that the steps that the Atlantic bloc has taken to overcome the EU's energy dependence on Russia have backlashed.

Any attempt against Russia, which failed to be a production society and which therefore does not want to lose its privileges in energy, has fizzled so far, and moreover they also strengthened the country. They jolted Ukraine and the Caucasus. Eventually, it resulted in Russia's invasion of Crimea and eastern Ukraine, even it is not called so. The embargoes which were implemented strengthened Vladimir Putin in internal politics. The Atlantic bloc thought that the Russians, who it made to adapt to consumption, would revolt and overthrow Putin. Things turned the other way around, with this uniting Russians in nationalistic feelings.

Russia is standing against the West with a perfect determination on war against the toothless Democrats' incomplete desire to fight. It almost says, "Then, come on," against the abrasive indirect initiatives of the Atlantic bloc. On the other hand, the doctrines and politics of Nixon and Kissinger, which had skillfully and successfully enlarged the China-Russia tension and broke their relations in the 1970s, were liquidated. These two forces broke the ices and managed to form a strong Asian alliance by including India.

We are very curious about what Donald Trump, who made statements aiming to cooperate with Russia during the election campaign, will do in response to these developments. We do not know to what extent the developments will allow Trump to actualize his intentions on this path. But one possibility paves the way for the U.S. to accept the current situation and to reconcile with Russia. We cannot imagine that the U.S. will come out of this bargain with huge gains in an environment created by Democrats' weak policies. Apart from anything else, even this bargaining reveals that we cannot be as sure of the unipolar world as before. Putin's statement that "The unipolar world is over" is not surprising. It is like, "The U.S., pull yourself together. Accept the situation and negotiate with me.”

The second possibility is that Trump does not accept this situation and takes the action in order to take away Russia's gains. The fact that the cabinet he has formed predominantly includes military figures, indicates that such a possibility is not so extreme.

Let us revisit the assassination. It is certain that this will eventually enhance Russia's weight. We do not know who is behind the heinous assassination. It seems the subcontractor is the infamous malevolent structure. The realpolitik cannot stomach emotions. Let us first note that if Russia is convinced for this subcontracting, it means this nasty structure will have ended. They will take revenge at all costs. Of course we will not hear or see it; but I do not think that they will be able to escape the joint operations to be conducted by Turkish and Russian intelligence. Although I do not consider it to be possible, it will not surprising that this malevolent structure will be a matter of crisis between Russia and the U.S.

Developments are deeply affecting Turkey in every respect. I will not repeat it, as I tried to handle it more elaborately in the last article. Let us say the following: If the U.S. is on the way to reconcile with Russia, this will determine what Turkey's position will be. Turkey has to take necessary steps to exercise its will in this bargaining. If the second possibility occurs, it means it is time for the Atlantic bloc to make a definite decision to regain Turkey. If it gains Turkey, it might have heavy costs for us. We must see that it is also necessary to be very careful here.


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