America continues to rock the balance of the world - ŞAHAP KAVCIOĞLU

America continues to rock the balance of the world

It is incorrect to think that the recent events taking place in Turkey are limited to Turkey alone. The unilateral cancellation of many agreements and imposition of economic and political sanctions on some important countries in consistence with the trade wars initiated by U.S. will obligate that the political and economic structure of the world be redesigned.

Since certain countries are adversely affected by these developments, it will result in them trying to establish new political alliances within themselves, as well as international alliances (BRICS-T, Emerging-7 etc.).

If we were to evaluate these issues in question from the perspective of our own country; we will see that Turkey is among the one of the most politically stable countries, especially after June the 24 elections.

From an economic aspect, the attempts of U.S. rating agencies and investment funds to rock the economic balance by weakening the Turkish currency and last week's decision of imposing sanctions because Pastor Brunson was not released seems to be effective in the short term, but recovery in the long term is inevitable thanks to the preemptive measures taken.

Despite all these negative developments;

When we consider the inflation rate, inflation in July was below expectations and it proved that it would gradually fall in the coming period.

Both the rise in our industrial production and the growth trend we have achieved in product exports indicate that the rapid growth we have experienced in the tourism sector will be balanced around 5 percent throughout the year.

Our unemployment rate, which reached 10.9 percent last year, declined to 9.6 percent this year. We expect that the unemployment rate will also continue to decrease all year long in a balanced manner.

Despite a partial decline in capacity utilization and real sector confidence index in July compared to the previous month, we see that the weakening of the investment trend is still limited with the improvement in expectations for future production.

The consumer confidence index rose by 4 percent in July from 70.3 percent to 73.1 percent. Thus, the index has reached its highest level since October 2016.

In addition, the service sector confidence index, the construction sector confidence index and the retail trade sector confidence index which are defined as sectoral confidence indices, continued to rise in July compared to the previous month (0.7 percent -2.4 percent -3.1 percent respectively)

Admittedly, Turkey has some political and economic difficulties, but it is hard to say that everything is a bed of roses for other countries. However, in these days when the global economy and geo-strategic conflicts are intertwined, we pass through a period where the international backdrop is very slippery and global economy is highly volatile.

In particular, we see that the trade wars initiated by the United States have recently damaged some of the reported data, particularly industrial production, trust and bilateral relations of Eurozone, Japan, China and the U.S.

The world's leading financial institutions are warning that rising costs with the added effect of increased tariffs can reach trillions of dollars.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in the World Economic Report, has recently published that the direct impact of trade wars could even reduce global growth by 0.5 points by 2020. For the world economy of 90 trillion dollars, 0.5 percent less growth corresponds to a loss of $ 450 billion.

If we were to evaluate political developments in other countries by putting economic developments aside;

In the United States, there is a concern that Republicans will suffer serious vote losses only less than a month left before the November 6 elections, after which the Senate and one third of deputies in the House of Representatives will be replaced.

In the U.K., the government is having difficult times due to the resignation of five major ministers and the great blows delivered by parliament in the Brexit process.

The recently established Merkel government in Germany faces the danger of disintegration due to the refugee crisis.

The continuation of sanctions against Russia by the EU and the U.S. continues to gravely shake the economy. Lately, the U.S. Treasury Department announced that sanctions will be imposed on Russia’s Agrosoyuz Commercial Bank.

Iran’s economy continues to be to be negatively affected after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that they would withdraw from the nuclear deal and that new sanctions would be implemented against the country. It can be observed that economic problems such as unemployment and high living costs are increasing in the country.

As a result, due to the unstable policies of the United States, the world's leading countries continue to live in distress.

As for Turkey; following the decision of U.S. sanctions against our country due to the detention of Pastor Brunson, the presidential cabinet publicly announced a 100-day action plan that included 400 projects.

In the 100-day action plan, there are many targets for various fields, from transportation to energy, from economy to industrialization, foreign trade to urbanism, foreign policy to defense, from education to health, from agriculture to technology, and from tourism to sports.

While Turkey, with its strong leader and government, is fighting in the global arena to realize these goals, encouraging development, the opposition parties also stand by the government against U.S. sanctions. In particular, the current stance of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), which hasn’t assumed a national and local stance until today and speaks the words of U.S. and the Fetullah Terrorist Organization (FETÖ) by referring to the July 15 treacherous coup attempt as a controlled coup attempt, and the current stance of the İYİ Party, which cannot eliminate the image and rhetoric of being a party established by FETÖ, are really important for Turkey.

As the saying goes; a good scare is worth more than good advice.


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