The sieges are all circular. They become clusters when they intersect. The clusters are important.
Peace with Russia, agreement with Israel, Brexit...
They are separate circles but have common clusters.
The UK/Brexit consists of three circles: The UK's dissolution, Europe's meltdown, and potential effects on the balance of powers in the international system.
For the time being, let us keep away from the UK's internal relations... But the first concerning question is: How much longer can the UK hold up after the EU?
What we had not realized, and what surfaced with the Brexit, is that the EU is fed up with British whims. (Its constant whining over EU decisions and “pleasure for me, pain for you” spoiltness.)
German Chancellor Angela Merkel's statement, "We are either married or divorced, there is no in-between," is tantamount to "pack your bags and leave."
US Secretary of State John Kerry's statement that the Brexit might not go forward after his meeting with UK Prime Minister David Cameron, is equally as sound.
We are inclined to associate the driving force of the EU project to World War II. While the US tied the old continent to itself with economic hawsers to prevent Europe from shifting into a different direction, it ensured Germany was rebuilt and helped it camouflage “that spirit” that will probably never die.
The description is understandable because it explains US-UK relations under the EU as well as Turkey-EU relations…
However, the story is about 500 years older. (Those who wish can associate it with 1453, the conquest of Constantinople.)The first of these “griefs” that still exist as they have not been dealt with, is the animosity between France and Germany ingrained in the subconscious of their peoples. It is equivalent to what we know as a “blood feud.”
Let us not get into it. The EU had chained these zombies. It is not incorrect to see the UK as the US's extension in the EU, but Paris-Berlin were maintaining the balance. (The balances that would be protected by Turkey in the EU is the other matter never touched upon.)
A point of equilibrium is necessary, not a point of power. Point of equilibrium. The UK may remain or leave, that's different… But necessary.
The trans-Atlantic blow
We are getting out of the circles of the UK.
Brexit is a blow to the US's trans-Atlantic leadership. It is ruining the “trans-Atlantic cooperation agreement” between the EU and the US. Washington is downsizing its trump cards in the continuing deals of this agreement. The advantage is going to China and Russia. This is dangerous.
Moscow is happy with the current situation. Its efforts to disperse Europe's mono-bloc inclination since the Ukraine crisis is about to end.
A Europe “without a compass” is the Kremlin's aim.
The shark effect
Can the US's sanctions against Russia continue? In any case, this is a dangerous question.
Germany, France, Italy, Greece, et cetera can sense the leaking blood of the “alliance.” Poland and its friends will not be enough. The siege will weaken.
Broadly, even if the carrier columns of the “order” are defined as the US, China, the EU and Russia, the truth is that it is only the US. Now it is revealed that it can be wounded. The smell of blood always travels fast in Europe.
Then the sole important global threshold now is the US and what they will do.
Israel-Turkey: What are you trying to say?
Turkey had become an “intermediator” between Hamas and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and between Palestine and Israel. Ankara's uniting role almost created global speed. Also, it showed the degree of the new and controlled rapprochement between Turkey and Israel.
It had reached the point of tearing the blockade on Gaza.
Then, in 2008, Israel's “Operation Cast Lead” and Hamas's missile response, which slightly hit Israel lands and heavily hit its psychology, happened and… the war started.
In January 2009, the Davos meeting that went into the history of international relations as the “one minute” incident, that dented Israel's armor which was thought worldwide could never be dented until then.
In that period, the White House was also supporting normalization between Israel and Palestine and crushed Tel Aviv in front of Ankara in the Turkey-Israel tension with its silence.
In 2010, the Mavi Marmara raid happened.
In 2012-2014, Israel's atrocities in Gaza continued.
One of the simultaneous developments was an interesting US variant. The punishment that stopped Iran from returning to the system would be ended and Tel Aviv could sense this. The second plan connecting the variant to the first was to break the influence of Iran on Gaza and replace it with Turkey.
Although both moves seems contradictory, they were complementary. The US did not want Iran in Gaza, because it gave Israel a reason to continue the war.
Continuing the war was related to Tel Aviv's internal political balances and the role of the security bureaucracy. And this had to be solved.
Turkey-Israel relations declining to the “miserable” level even in diplomatic language caused so many multi-directional waves that it even facilitated Russia's settlement in Syria.
Let us remember that the agreement with Israel followed the restriction of Russia's military presence in Syria and that on top of this, Israel was able to get its warplanes all the way into Damascus.
We are now on different ground.
Tel Aviv was suffocating… Turkey and European countries were left on the outside.
We are coming to an end in Syria. Iran is going to be pushed out (meanwhile, the chief of staff was dismissed) and the Gulf countries, Turkey and Israel will be back. Daesh? The Istanbul attack shows they are aware of the “end.”
What about Russia? You are going to be excited when you see what is behind the curtain.