Turkey-US: Consensual divorce in February - NEDRET ERSANEL

Turkey-US: Consensual divorce in February

Four elections:

1) -- Turkey's June 7 general elections

2) -- The recent February Assembly of Experts and parliamentary elections in Iran

3) -- The Russian Duma elections originally scheduled to be held in October, but changed to September by President Vladimir Putin – the exact day on which they will be held remains a riddle

4) -- The end-of-year US presidential elections that have already gripped the US and the world.

Whatever is happening in the Middle East today – or as popularly stated, in the “Great Middle East,” they are all “encouraged and/or managed” so that election results will line up in accordance with the West's wishes.

If you consider these four elections as four fundamental pillars, the second leg, the Iranian elections, seems to have settled – it will produce symbolically revolutionary results rather than politically revolutionary ones.

Let alone, before Tehran became Western-oriented, it was desired that President Hassan Rouhani, who was called to play with the nuclear agreement, strengthen his hand. Done.

The same was wanted for Turkey, and the goal was achieved on June 7. However, Ankara immediately realized this and fixed it. That is what November 1 was. The booby trap that was set to explode once the ballot box opened was neutralized by the Turkish people on November 1. The four-leg plan is now crippled.

The game set for the Russian elections is similar. The Russian people re-assigning the heavy economic cost caused by Putin back to Putin.

'Our enemies prepare themselves for our elections'

Barack Obama: “This is big, when we look at the state of Russian economy, it is not going to be good for Russia. It is also going to have heavy costs for Moscow. I had said, 'Russia is going to get itself sucked into a quagmire,' and this is definitely going to happen. This is an expensive job. It will not end soon, either. What we need to ask is, what is Russia going to gain from keeping as an ally a country for which it needs to spend billions of dollars to support?” (“Obama: Rusya kendini bataklığa soktu” (Obama: Russia got itself into a quagmire), February 17, AA.)

The text should also include that it is significant in terms of seeing the Asia-Pacific leg of the big map. Obama made this statement addressing the leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

In his February 17 speech addressing the country's intelligence agencies, Putin said: “ 'Foreign enemies' are trying to sabotage the September elections. The Duma elections are coming up and unfortunately our foreign enemies are preparing themselves for these election. Foreign intelligence agencies have increased their operations since last year.”

The fourth is the US Presidential election, but in this context, it is exceptional.

The single criterion for the importance of the result, regardless of who is elected, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump or someone else, is whether they are going to be able to reach an agreement on Middle East and Asia-Pacific issues with the US's “established order.” There have been those who couldn't reach an agreement, but none have escaped being “convinced.”

The expected outcome of these elections is not to overthrow the leaders mentioned – because it would not be realistic – but to grate and smooth them as much as possible so they cannot resist even the narrowest map sheets as the maps are being drawn from scratch.

3 continents, 3 peeved allies

Washington has three strategic allies in three continents and as a strange coincidence of the “crisis equilibrium,” all of these “senior and old” allies are at the heart of these tense regions.

Germany in the Ukraine crisis; Turkey in the Syrian crisis and surprisingly the Asia-Pacific showdown/division and Japan at the China/North Korea point! Yes, Japan may fall out of the game and there may be a diagonal tear from the northern hemisphere all the way to Tokyo.

The US – although aware of the insufficient number of troops – wants to establish separate balances and play with friends its own size, Russia and China. Such that on February 25 this year, it submitted a draft resolution to the United Nations on Syria with Russia and on North Korea with China. Moscow and Beijing were left standing, feeling “used.”

Yet it is this, the belief that it can “manage” business within the “big triangle” and until the position is assigned to the new president, is making the regional powers stated upset with Washington. What is sickening is that China and Russia are both seeking American sympathy against one another.

Another point common to Berlin, Tokyo and Ankara is that they all have significant numbers of US troops present (especially Germany and Japan). For instance, the US base and volume of troops in Germany is so high that it brings to mind “tutelage.” South Korea and Saudi Arabia may (be) join(ed) without hesitation these countries that have a high capability of “spoiling the game.” (South Korea and Japan are not happy with some of the developments in the US-China relationship, “Statement by NSC Spokesperson Ned Price on National Security Advisor Susan E. Rice's Meeting with Foreign Minister Wang Yi of China,” February 24, The Official White House Website.)

While Russia and China appear in front of the world with harsh criticisms aimed at the US and its ally, they will eventually pay the price for stepping over their friends and making secret agreements with Washington.

This cannot be managed forever.

The exception is, when that day comes (February 2017), Turkey's likelihood of saying “no” to the “we now have a new president, let's forget the latest sorrows in the region” offer.

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