Surprise seeds: Can shadow governments meet again? - NEDRET ERSANEL

Surprise seeds: Can shadow governments meet again?

Turkey-Israel-Russia...

While the image of Obama forcing Netanyahu to apologize to Erdoğan on March 23, 2013 is still fresh in our minds....

Just after Netanyahu speaks to US Secretary Joe Biden, who can be considered the engineer of this reconciliation, before his press conference in Rome...

While the two sides openly thank President Obama for encouraging this reconciliation...

While local and foreign specialists and observers point to the US as the country that benefits most from this agreement...

We are 'viewing' Turkey (from our own perspective) writing to Putin straight after signing the agreement in Ankara in order to avoid standing in the same picture with Israel.

It is true that Turkey is trying to decrease the number of problems it has in its foreign relations.

Then we should be asking; How can Russia join this 'perfect alliance'?

THICK SKINNED

If you were to say this sentence to those who have been scrutinizing this agreement on TV and newspapers since Sunday, they will realize that they have been excrutiating themselves: The first reason for Turkey renewing its relations with Israel is the “US' thick-skinned attitude.”

Washington's engagement with the Middle East has changed, thus the nature of its strategic existence in the region has changed too.

Neither Tel Aviv nor Ankara is happy with this new picture. They both felt or even experienced exclusion.

Putin tried to interrupt the negotiations between Israel and Turkey until the actual agreement. In return Russia proposed to cooperate in certain grey fields in the region.

Such a step would interrupt Russia's plan as Washington would be surrounding Syria, the Middle East and especially Russia.

In the final stages of Russia's warming relations with Israel, Moscow showed the card to the US. The density of visits and the profiles of participants are interesting. ('Why Bibi and Vlad get along', 21/06, The National İnterest.)

Obama understood the situation straight away...

This is what the “excuse me” letter posted to Kremlin from Ankara is all about. It is like trying to make a lover jealous...

TO OVERHAUL IRAN

Is the Turkey-Israel agreement a development that has the power to change the game/balance in the Middle East? Of course it is. If it is managed properly, it can even be the 'playmaker.'

Both topics need focus. One of them is the Iran issue. Tehran watched the negotiations very carefully...

Whether they mention it at all or not, Turkey-Saudi Arabia-Qatar and Israel's subconscious reflexes will file Iran's ambitions (backed by Russia and the US).

There is the Russian-Iran-Hizbollah alliance on the one side, while the traditional Israel-Iran “lover” stands on the opposite side.

I have written about the competition Russia and Iran have in Syria several times.. No one can say they haven't heard about several Iranian commanders being killed by Russian intelligence.

There is nothing surprising about the Russia-Iran competition in Syria; it isn't surprising when countries with different interests come across each other. This is the nature of it.

The second issue is: Who will be the next president of the United States. It is important how the new leader of the US will position itself in the Middle East, both for Israel and Turkey.

The only point guaranteed is; Whoever the president is, he/she will continue to reinforce Turkey-Israel unity.

If Washington turns its interest to the other hemisphere, then the results of the agreement will “expand” further in time and eventually lead to a permanent solution.

This might lead to Egypt joining the Turkey-Israel-Qatar-Saudi alliance as Tel Aviv (just like Riyadh) might start to try and persuade Turkey to change its stance against Cairo. This then might lead to Iran's overwhelming/balancing alliance. Besides the game might be set differently this time...

I am saying this to the respondents; Those who appeal to the North part of the B plan, are standing right in front of the threshold in which a warm wind blows from within.

TAKE DEEP BREATHS

The military and intelligence “dependence” between Turkey and Israel is no longer the point in question. Is it possible that it will be renewed? Yes, but without using the “once upon a time” phrase...

Because the period before us requires this...

Turkey guaranteed that it would speak to Hamas about returning the bodies of two Israeli soldiers and releasing two captive Israeli soldiers. It is said that the Turkish negotiation board expressed that President Erdoğan wrote a letter to Israel informing them that he gave instructions to the Turkish Intelligence.” ('Roman peace between Turkey and Israel, 27/06, Milliyet.)

Another question that comes to mind is: Can there be secret aspects to the agreement?

It wouldn't be surprising.. Because the 'go over something with a fine-toothed comb' attitude indicates that details about the region may have been discussed.

It would be unrealistic to expect them to explain at this stage.

But we will realize.

We don't have the room to discuss the Mediterranean energy issue between the Turkey-Israel-Russia-US quad, which happens to be the real issue. Nor do we have the room to discuss the Brexit and how it affects this agreement within this article.

The above-mentioned issues can be found in my articles to follow...

twitter.com/nedretersanel
+

Cookies are used limited to the purposes in th e Personal Data Protection Law No.6698 and in accordance with the legislation. For detailed information, you can review our cookie policy.