Oil, weapons, money, Iran, the US... - NEDRET ERSANEL

Oil, weapons, money, Iran, the US...

Saudi Arabia's Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman could not have chosen a more unfortunate day than yesterday to visit the White House… (“Obama to meet Saudi deputy crown prince on Friday,” 16/06, CNBC.)

On the same day that US President Barack Obama announced he will be meeting with the deputy crown prince, the US's well-established aircraft company Boeing was expected to make the official announcement that it sold exactly 100 aircraft worth $25 billion to Iran… (“Iran says reaches deal to acquire Boeing planes,” 14/06, Reuters.)

For those who notice the irony in these few sentences, it is not easy to find an example of the state of the Middle East, what has become of it, that is easier to stomach.

Iran previously reached an agreement of a similar kind with Airbus (Europe). Neither agreement is new. As soon as Iran's nuclear agreement took effect, these two enormous deals were signed.

In brief, it could be considered a strong incentive in terms of accord between the anti-nuclear West – which thinks of our future better than any of us – and Iran.

Let alone, there is more to it. Such sales do not end once you deliver the aircraft. The “sale” continues. Companies training Iranian pilots and technicians, offering after-sale services are the nature of this market. In other words, agreements are going to create new job opportunities in the US economy.

Neither Trump nor Clinton can spoil Iran's game. It also has a political aspect. It is clear that Obama is continuing to increase the White House's ties with Iran without paying attention to anybody.

This is his only legacy in foreign policy – if you do not count his advance Nobel. Hence – and let's face it, it's a clever move – he has backed another influence group that has strong ties with the “established order,” the aircraft and associated defense industry in the US.

It means neither of the US.'s prospective presidents, neither Donald Trump, nor Hillary Clinton, regardless of how much they exaggerate, can cancel such agreements promising large sums of money and employment. They cannot do anything about Iran's nuclear agreement either. We didn't mention “Europe” next to “Airbus” for nothing. This way, Europe – together with the agreements made by certain countries – also becomes a stakeholder guardian of the Iran agreement.

Who will the Israeli and Saudi Arabian lobby make out the invoice to?

Obviously the Jewish and Saudi Arabian lobbies are the strongest primary political pressure groups in the US. It could be said that these agreements are increasing their anger.

The president and his team are confident that these agreements will also strengthen the recently declined motivation between the US. and Iran. It is known that the question, “Is this as much as Tehran will integrate with the West?” is heard a lot in internal politics and that Iran goes even further and shares its complaints with officials. (“Zarif: West will not stop enmity toward Iran,” 12/06, PressTV.) It could be assumed that this shortfall too will be patched up now.

It should also be considered whether the Saudi and Israeli lobbies will try and have the price of this paid, especially while the US is immersed in the presidential election.

Both segments prefer to invest in the prospective president, but it could be said that Washington is steering clear of Riyadh.

You will remember from my previous article: “My favorite is the claim in the confidential and unpermitted section of the official American report on the September 11 attacks, that the Saudis were involved in the incidents, was personally denied by CIA Director John O. Brennan. The 28-page top-secret file is going to be presented to the US Congress and I believe that these pages are going to show that Saudi Arabia has nothing to do with the incident. The results of the report revealed that Riyadh has no connection to the September 11 attacks in neither government nor state nor in a certain position as a civil servant or official authority.”

How will the US take Iran's oil?

Last Monday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced that daily raw petroleum production fell by 100,000 and regressed to 32.360 million barrels per month. (“OPEC'in petrol üretimi Mayıs'ta düştü” (OPEC's oil production fell in May), 13/06, Milliyet.)

Two days later, the Islamic Republic of Iran's Minister of Petroleum Bijan Zangeneh announced that Iran's daily petrol production neared 4 million barrels. (“Iran Oil Output up 3.8mbd,” 15/06, İRNA.)

You can sense the developments from these signs…

It is very important that the oil card is played right for Tehran, and Iran is putting into action a new oil agreement model aimed at drawing in foreign investment to the energy sector. It is interesting that the US Treasury also announced a new solution bill to allow US companies to make business agreements with Iran. (“Publication of Iran-related Frequently Asked Questions,” 08/06, U.S. State Treasury Official Website.)

Studying the “agreeable and nonagreeable” points of the two preparations, may give an idea to Energy Minister Berak Albayrak and his team in terms of understanding the US's oil absorption technique and understanding Iran and its joining the game from a certain point.

Is Obama, who is in his last days as president, trying to strengthen the agreement only to prevent the Iranian heritage from being wasted, or is he expecting a change in Tehran's policies in all regional crisis points?

Possibly both at the same time.

But Iran is going to wait. It is going to see who will be the new owner of the Oval Office and try to understand. Once it sees danger, it is going to confuse the agreement text with the matchbox… (“Iranian Leader Warns to Reciprocate US Discard of Nuclear Deal,” 14/06, FNA.)



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