The crisis Ankara experienced with Russia-Iran strengthens the possibility of an energy crisis. The moment Turkey expressed that it was backing up its natural gas from other sources, Israel stating that it could help with supply should be carefully analyzed. This is especially true if these words were uttered by Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu himself.
Surely, no one regards this as an act of kindness, but no one clearly understands how Israel sees the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Daesh), which has metastasized the region, and the geopolitics it produces in Syria and Iraq.
Israel is only just licking the wound it got after Iran and the West signed a nuclear agreement. Everyone must have noticed Israel's inaction. Every country in the region has been taking some kind of action, whether good or bad, toward the developments happening in the region. What about Tel Aviv?
According to many experts/commentators Russia's cooperation with Iran, Damascus, Hezbollah and other “Shiite components” in the region suit Israel's purpose. It is not true. The following question can help make a new equation, “Would Tel Aviv want Russia to dominate in Syria, or the US [despite Obama]?”
THE VIENNA MEETINGS MEAN TEHRAN FOR ISRAEL
We have to consider and connect everything at the same time. There is a meaning to the breakdown of European Union-Israel relations and EU support in Syria negotiations. Iran's attendance to the negotiation talks is killing Israel. This means Iran is growing in the region and the “border.”
Even though it believes it is delayed, Israel's expectation is: The US supports the Sunni Arab camp and arms them. It defeats Daesh with Sunni Arab and Kurdish soldiers. While I write these lines the news of, “Saudi Arabia establishing an 'Islamic alliance against terrorism' with 33 countries including Turkey, is just this.
WHO WILL THE S-300S RUSSIA GAVE TO IRAN BE USED AGAINST?
This is a good question that can be answered independent of the conjuncture. Russia supplying Iran with S-300 defense missiles, at a time it is experiencing a crisis with Turkey for shooting down its plane, makes Israel's thoughts of attacking Iran impossible. (“Military Strategist: Iran, Russia Air Defense Power Changing Power Balance,” Nov. 30, FARS news agency.) Especially when you are exposed to news that Israel is about to attack Iran's nuclear plants. Israel continuing to buy submarines from Germany may have a “nuclear implication.” (“Israel is going to purchase submarines from Germany,” Dec. 13, TRT.)
There is also the “perception” issue that adds to Israel's worries. Iran affiliation with the West brought Tehran to a 1-0 position; however, regarding Iran as a part of the solution in the eastern regions experiencing crisis increases Israel's anxiety.
NOW THE BALANCES ARE CHANGING
Israel believes that the “religious leadership” of Iran, which is clear from isolation and sanctions, can no longer be restrained as it has reached financial possibilities, has Western countries investing in it, and has a fortified political position. Yet it is curious about “Why should Iran change its policies now?” This question is not insignificant, yet initial data indicate that Israel too, is isolated.
This is what Israel wants: “Assad should be toppled using military methods.”
Believing this or not is another story, but the real problem is with the White House. Washington does not have the enthusiasm to start another long-term war in the Middle East. We know this for sure. Israel, on the other hand, is watching the West's statements on a transition period with Syrian President Bashar Assad, just like us. (At this point we should mention that an exceptional meeting was held at the Pentagon with the attendance of US President Barack Obama, and the following day the Minister of Defense came to İncirlik. This can be regarded as an indication of a ground offensive. 'The new global plan in the fight against Daesh'14/12, Sabah.)
Contrary to the expectations, Russia's military operations in Syria – to reserve land for Assad – were unsuccessful. Therefore, NATO/ the West, Russia-the US started to bare their teeth. (Russia went as far as to scare off fishing vessels. In fact, the fisherman said, “ Did they shoot? I did not hear anything.') This can change Moscow's compass direction regarding Syria.
FEAR: SHARING THE SAME BORDER WITH IRAN
As far as Israel's greatest fear… The possibility that Iran, acting as arbiter in the Syrian crisis solution, will become settled at the Syria-Israel border. This means war. And again, according to Tel Aviv's risk calculations it is nearly impossible for Iran to renounce Assad.
Israel has not yet clashed with Russian forces in Syria. Yet it is not happy, not at all. It is impossible to overlook the Russian-Iran military existence under its nose. It is aware that the military operations in the West can move toward the south, the Russian plane being shot down, that the south of Syria surrounding the Golan Hills may be evolve into a critical process.
There is no need for such a situation to happen virtually. Israel will not abstain from adding the “critical region” to its land, if it feels the existence of Russian/Iranian attempts, like it is in the western parts of the region.
Essentially the smell of this possibility was sensed ever since Russia started its operations in Syria. The difference this time is that Israel is trapped and it will continue to be.
The meaning of this could be the foundation of a closed/secure zone to flights in southern parts of Syria.
(“Israeli-Russian Coordination in Syria: So Far So Good?” Dec. 7, Washington Institute.)