Welcome to a NATO country with ‘open airspace,’ Mr. Lavrov! - NEDRET ERSANEL

Welcome to a NATO country with ‘open airspace,’ Mr. Lavrov!

Today, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is due in Turkey, where he will discuss the Ukraine crisis, the grain corridor, and the operation in Syria with Ankara…

We know that there are contradictory statements about Syria coming from Moscow’s official channels. While Lavrov himself said, "Turkey cannot remain indifferent to what is happening," there are other spokespersons who say: "Deploy Damascus’s troops to Turkey’s target areas..." 

This doesn’t matter, but what does matter is the fact that Lavrov was humiliated before coming to Turkey. French leader Macron was concerned a few days ago: “We must not humiliate Russia, so that when the fighting stops we can build an exit ramp through diplomatic means.”

Bulgaria, Montenegro, and North Macedonia did not allow the plane of the Russian foreign minister, who was supposed to pay a diplomatic visit to Serbia, fly over their airspace. Thus, on a rare occasion, the high representative of a superpower was turned away at the door…

The aforementioned countries did this at the request and behest of the West. All three are already NATO members. Now, Lavrov is coming to another NATO member country. Not to an ordinary member either: the country with the second-largest military power, the first when one accounts for strategic value…

Therefore, many believe that Russia will act as a facilitator in Turkey’s Syria operation. 

Once again…

It may be necessary to go over just how critical and valuable Turkish-Russian relations have become!

Whoever you ask, they will tell you about these “bilateral” ties, touching on issues such as energy relations from natural gas to nuclear power plants, Syria, the Black Sea, the Caucasus, Cyprus, the Turkish republics, trade, tourism, the search for common funding, and the Astana-Sochi talks, which all are of significant value. We gave the world a type of diplomacy that can be likened to “walking arm in arm by elbowing each other”...

When we look at Turkish-Russian relations through the eyes of Moscow itself and the global conditions, which has never been done in Turkey, then we can expect the Russian Foreign Minister to leave Ankara, saying: “Do what you will” and without much "whining" either...

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In the early days of the war, I wrote that “the biggest reason” for the conflict is for Russia to remain as a third superpower on equal footing with China and the U.S. That is why the Ukrainian war will not end in Russia's defeat.

The joker of the Sino-U.S. global rivalry has always been Russia. Whoever, be it Beijing or Washington, holds this card, it would grant them an advantage. For now, it seems to be in the hands of China. We can say that finance is from China, and security is from Russia…

Moscow will reach its goals regardless of the timetable, and if it can happen quickly, the United States will be considered defeated.

Since Europe cannot put military power behind all those sanctions, its geopolitical maneuvering continues to be somewhat limited. Imagine that even the main Turkish opposition, the CHP, which hesitates to badmouth the West, says via its chairman: “We think that Turkey should play a role and contribute to the rebuilding process of Europe.” Even they see the wreckage that is Europe…

Things don’t look good in Europe either. It is not possible for Germany and France to overcome this; they don’t think they’re better off regardless of who ends up winning the war. On the one hand, the NATO slavery will continue, on the other, the U.S. would withdraw from Europe!

There is such a possibility, moreover, that the U.S. would move on to the Pacific even if it wins or loses in Ukraine. This possibility cannot be ignored. This is one of the reasons why the EU seeks an autonomous security mechanism.

The American goal was always to drain Russia in Ukraine, making it impossible for Moscow to intervene anywhere again, and to tie Europe’s hands before leaving.

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Beijing-Moscow relations are much more structured now, but it's true, they're still tactical. However, they are reaching the upper tier of the tactical stage, that is, the level of tactical cooperation that is capable of producing strategic results…

We see that there is a desire to reach the strategic umbrella: economic cooperation, common currency, Chinese compensation for Russian energy losses, and open support in Ukraine. These are all high-end goals, including Kissinger saying, “End the war in two months.”

There are also rumors to this end that claim the two countries are flying their nuclear planes together over the Pacific, and that "China will send troops to Ukraine at the request of the Russians." 


Turkey is the joker of the rivalry between the East and the West…

So let's circle back: Russia is becoming more dependent on China, which is the result of U.S.-British policies and their followers in Europe. Neither the United States nor China wanted a scenario in which Russia becomes a part of the opposing front. For China, even a temporary Russia-U.S. partnership would be a bad scenario.

If Russia is trying to be an equal power that the U.S. and China cannot give up, if it aims to be dominant in Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Eurasia, even if the U.S. sacrificed and gave up on Europe, it would do them well to listen to the meaningful words of the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in this regard:

“After World War II, we kept circling around the hypocrisy of the pacts that were never completely adopted and always kept on the side. In this process, every time we tried to chart our own path politically and economically, we found ourselves in coups, instabilities, and crises,”

While Moscow is discussing Syria today, it should keep this big picture in mind...

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