Head-spinning events taking place in the world - LEVENT YILMAZ

Head-spinning events taking place in the world

The trade war between the U.S. and China is continuing at full speed while Washington is trying to get Beijing to accept its conditions. However, whether U.S. President Donald Trump really wants a solution in this regard is ambiguous. White House economy adviser Larry Kudlow said, "There is no certainty that China will respond to demands in the trade negotiations, but to talk is better than not to talk," giving a clue about the future of the process.

Student loans in the U.S. may trigger a new crisis. As a matter of fact, the situation is worse than in 2008. The student loan amount cumulatively increased 157 percent in the last 11 years.

Italy's budget issue continues to give the EU, and hence the world, a headache. The Italian government's 2019 budget from late last month, which includes major public expenses and a budget deficit, was rejected by the European Commission with a never-before seen move.

Stating that the tools used by the European Central Bank for the euro region’s economic stability are inadequate on their own, Germany's Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said that more tools are necessary to ensure stability. The economic pressures on the union first by Greece, then Italy, are increasing concerns on the future of the union that is already dealing with Brexit.

Former IMF President Dominique Strauss-Kahn said that the world is less equipped to manage a major crisis compared to a decade ago. Strauss-Kahn, who said that the 2008 crisis had a major effect on Trump's election, stated that the IMF and EU's policies are not helping the global economy and that there is no international coordination.

The Chinese economy is also having difficulties. Growth rates are below predictions. Problems have already started to arise in the markets. At the end of last month, the Chinese Central Bank had to stream 120 billion yen (approximately $17.3 billion) of resources to the market to provide liquidity.

2013 Nobel Economy Prize winner Robert Shiller said that the developments in the currently weakened U.S. real estate market reminds him of the real estate bubble period prior to the 2008 crisis.

In a speech he gave at the Bloomberg Global Business Forum, Ken Griffin, the founder of Bridgewater, one of the world's biggest hedge funds, said that the next financial crisis will be taking place within 12-24 months.

According to the Merrill Lynch fund manager poll, 85 percent of participants say that the global economy has reached the end of the strengthening cycle. This figure is 11 percent higher than the rate in 2007.

In brief, expectations on Wall Street, the heart of U.S. markets, is that a new financial crisis will erupt ahead of the next U.S. presidential elections.

Downgrades

I wanted to give you a brief summary of some of the latest news reports. I try to remind you at every opportunity that the above developments, along with many similar developments, are bringing numerous risks for the global economy in 2019 and 2020. I am not going to bother you with figures again, however, we should not forget that we are in a period in which growth expectations in the world economy are constantly being downgraded. Meanwhile, as the expectation of global risks and a new financial crisis that will be triggered by the risks increases, developing countries like ours need to be prepared for this situation.

Decisions appropriate for the zeitgeist

The speculative attacks on the exchange rate, regional risks and sanctions in violation of international law have excessively heated up our economy agenda for some time. However, it is a fact that the recent suggestions developed by certain economy circles with emphasis on the increased inflation rates only have the risk of triggering stagnation. What's more is that the interest level, which may lead the Turkish lira to be more valuable than its level of competitiveness, and the financing costs this creates should not be ignored. There is benefit in reminding that the finance policy steps to be taken by the government with respect to pushing the reel sector to the forefront to prevent the rise in unemployment and the economy from shrinking, are perfectly in sync with the spirit of the time.

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