The nation's common mind never failed in any election. The decision of the common mind is always superior to the decision of the individual mind. Evaluate every election and referendum, the result that comes out of the ballot box represents the best decision made for the nation and the country.
What's surprising is the very fine adjustment made by millions of people. An analysis of the results of the June 7, 2015 and Nov. 1, 2015 elections show that 10% of voters go back and forth between the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and the other parties, surprisingly changing politics. Keeping the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) just above the threshold – in other words, at a fine line between life and death – with 10.5% of the vote on November 1, 2015, is the most typical example of this fine adjustment.
Neither victory, nor defeat, nor an end
We experienced an incredible fine adjustment in the results of this referendum. The outcome of 51.5% against 48.5% is such a fine setting that it signifies neither victory, nor defeat, nor an end for anybody. Meanwhile, it includes a message for all parties to rethink, self-criticize, question, renew themselves and pull themselves together.
This referendum turned out to be “a sour win" for the AK Party, “a promising defeat" for the Republican People's Party (CHP) and “a questioning result" for the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).
It is extremely difficult to say who the winners and losers of the referendum are in terms of political parties. It seems impossible for any party with a peaceful mind to say that they achieved a very successful result in this referendum.
Yes, we can technically say that the AK Party-MHP alliance got approval from the people and hence, based on the result, achieved the desired goal. However, the resulting rate was so finely adjusted by the people, that the AK Party and MHP are unable to celebrate the outcome in an air of festivity and with a peaceful mind.
This is visible in both Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım's speech and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's press conference. The demoralization seen in the faces of the close crew standing beside the two leaders in particular clearly showed us that they saw the results as “a sour win."
What is the message given to the AK Party, CHP, MHP?
I guess AK Party politicians will not fully express this definition and, as a matter of fact, they will even object to it. However, they know and we know that this outcome has led to some resentment and triggered questions in people's minds. This fine adjustment made by the people needs to be understood well. There are messages in the question, “They said yes, but how?" that the AK Party needs to analyze very well. The AK Party needs to be self-critical. This issue will be frequently discussed in the upcoming days.
I guess the CHP is in shock. It lost, but for some reason, energy and hope sparked up within their party. The messages contained in the question, “The people said no, but how?" are directed towards them. As the referendum outcome was celebrated in front of the CHP Headquarters (nobody understood why they were celebrating), protests were made, calling CHP Chairman Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu to resign. Peculiar, don't you think? Beyond self-criticism, the CHP needs serious revision within its self.
The MHP is most likely the party to endure the most injuries as a result of the referendum. Technically, its alliance won, but the distribution of the “yes" votes has also led MHP Chairman Devlet Bahçeli to question himself very seriously. The high rate of “no" votes in Bahçeli's hometown Osmaniye and Adana alone is enough reason to question himself. It seems that the MHP will be going through very tough times in the upcoming days.
Winners of the referendum are Kurds
What pleased me the most in this referendum was the state of the Kurdish votes, which I have been following for a long period of time. The Kurdish voters who seriously distanced themselves from the pro-Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) HDP since the start of the ditch terror following the June 6, 2015 elections, continued to further distance themselves in this referendum as well.
Even though their votes are said to be low in quantity, there was a shift of votes in the region that had an extreme psychological impact. When detailed technical calculations are made in the following days, I believe it will become obvious that the votes that shifted from the HDP to “yes", changed the destiny of the election. I am speaking to experts on this and once I complete the study, I will explain in more detail
I can confidently say that Kurds are the sole winners of this referendum. Let us not forget that this is a very critical matter in solving the century-old Kurdish question and 40-year terror problem. President Erdoğan, too, made a lot of emphasis on this matter in his speech. I hope it continues and they will give thought to this matter.
My trust in and admiration for the nation increased once more. The people have a magnificent political mind, the ability to analyze and the courage to make a decision. I am not one of those who have a “nation fetish." However, we tested and proved once again on July 15, 2016 that we truly are a great nation and in this referendum we truly have a sound common mind.
We are going to continue to discuss more and write more on this topic. May the results bring fortune to our nation.