The “yes” campaign that was launched on social media by presenting the question, “Are you in too?” seems to have excited voters from all walks of life. Beyond the perception that “minds are confused” about the contents of the constitutional amendment package, currently, it appears that the people have no doubt about what they will be saying yes to in the referendum.
A segment of the “no front” is also clear. This clarity consists of those who will say, “No, no matter what happens.” This is the segment that is against the third bridge, the third airport, in brief, those who are against every single megaproject on the agenda. They are those who want the status quo to continue. They are those who continue their existence through a system that is prone to intervention.
Kurdish voters' attitude will determine the 'yes' rate
There are also those whose attitude until the April referendum will determine the “yes” rate: The Kurdish voters.
A study carried out by research company GENAR might give us a clue from now about what the Kurds are going to do in the referendum. However, the kind of relationship the Kurdish voter has with the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) should also be mentioned.
The Kurds who supported the HDP in the June 7, 2015 elections have realized “its [the HDP's] trench politics, direct support to terrorism and terrorists and ultimately, its lack of sensitivity concerning Turkey's unity.”
Kurds made their decision on the night of July 15
The approach taken by Kurds during the process of the July 15 coup and internal invasion attempt tells us everything. The attitude taken on the days of the “homeland watch” that night and later in predominantly Kurdish cities and districts through the, “Turkey, nation, unity and common homeland” emphasis, stands before us as the sign of detachment from the HDP.
Our people in the east and southeast who held our crescent-star flag gave the strongest message to the coup, internal invasion, the Fetullah Terrorist Group (FETÖ) and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
The Kurdish voters have certainly abandoned the HDP. The “aggressive, destructive” political tone developed by the HDP through the “We will not allow you to be president” formula, no longer triggers any reaction among Kurds. Of course, this excludes HDP and PKK supporters to the extent of militancy. Neither Turkey, nor the nation, or coexistence is part of their stance. And of course, they are continuing their existence as a marginal group.
As you know, the HDP project was developed as the PKK terrorist organization's imprisoned leader Abdullah Öcalan's formula to reach a larger segment of the community. To achieve this, figures such as Figen Yüksekdağ, Ertuğrul Kürkçü, Ayhan Bilgen and Sırrı Süreyya Önder were incorporated.
Traditionally, Kurds are the most conservative segment of this country. Efforts were made to distance Kurds from their religiosity by the hand of the PKK terrorist organization and most recently, through HDP politics. Very much like the “secularization” of Turks by the hand of the Republican People's Party (CHP).
This is why the CHP and HDP, the two parties that are projections of one another, are today opposing the referendum to be held to change Turkey's “system, which is prone to outside intervention.”
Because in terms of nature, these two parties are alike. Both the CHP and HDP are Jacobean. Neither the CHP nor the HDP trust the people. Both the CHP and HDP stand before us as two actors that do politics “for the people, despite the people” by the hand of the “elites.”
They wanted to “secularize” the country's west through the CHP and the east through the HDP/PKK. And they were partially successful too.
The HDP not distancing itself from the PKK terrorist organization, on the contrary, acting like a direct subsidiary of the organization, led Kurdish voters to ask, “What's going on?”
It would not be a prophecy to say that the HDP is currently melting down. As for the answer to where the votes lost by the HDP are going…
There is more than one answer to this question. The conservative voters' choice is the Justice and Development Party (AK Party).
However, that is not to say that there is no concern that the constitutional amendment package to be taken to referendum passing Parliament with the support of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) might have a negative impact on Kurdish voters. A grey area is apparent in this picture. Even though there are hesitations in relation to how the conservative voters will make their choice at a time when nationalism is on a rise, it seems this problem has long been overcome in terms of the Kurds who grabbed the Turkish flag and ran to the streets on the night of July 15.
A step has been taken to change our system which is prone to outside intervention. And I believe that the greatest support for that step will come from Kurdish voters.
Do not be surprised if in the next few days you come across videos in which the question “Are you in too?” is asked in Kurdish.
We are going to continue to follow the fronts that will form during the referendum process.