Why is economic growth important in election periods? - ERDAL TANAS KARAGÖL

Why is economic growth important in election periods?

In the June 7 election, Turkey faced a result it hasn't seen for 13 years. We can explain the reasons for this result, which were unexpected and a surprise for many fractions, with a lot of factors from the political, social and economic point of view.

Especially for the economic growth that takes place among the economic factors, we should make a separate title for the effect of the economic growth on the election results.

Because economic growth not only consists of a digit.

Economic growth at the same time also means production, welfare and sharing the welfare . While the budget is being prepared, as the amount that will be reserved for the items in the budget is being determined, whatever the income of the country is, the share is made accordingly. While talking about the level of any economic index, we make evaluations according to the share of this index in the national income.

That's why; it is obvious how important the economic growth is both for the country economy and for the individual and social welfare level.

Thus, growth increase or decrease shows its effect on welfare at the ballot box. The last election and the growth rate for the first quarter, once more proved the power of this relation.


The success that AK Party showed in the economy in 2002, after it came to power single-handedly , has been one of the main reasons to be the first party in each election after that .

If we remember, despite the 34 percent of votes AK Party got in the 2002 general elections, that year the rate of the economic growth was 6.2 percent. After the 2002 general elections, in the local elections in 2004, AK Party's vote rate increased. Because together with the 9.4 percent growth rate in 2004, the vote rate increased to 41.6 percent.

In the 2007 general elections, as the vote rate was 46 percent, the rate of growth was 4.7 percent

But in spite of the increasing vote rate in the 2007 general elections, in slowing down, the factors as the Grand National Assembly of Turkey's (TBMM) being obstructed in the presidential election and the status quo's efforts to cause political instability, have been effective.

As for the years 2008 and 2009, when the global economic crisis had been the nightmare for many developed countries, Turkey's economy's growth rate decreasing -4.8 percent, has been one of the significant factors that caused AK Party's vote rate to be 38.3 percent.

The decrease in the vote rate can be related with the downsizing of the country economy in 2009.

In 2011, when the economic growth rate was 8.8 percent, with the change that this economic growth brought to the vote rates, the vote rate AK Party received increased to 49.8 percent.

Besides this, in the 2014 local elections, AK Party's vote rate was lower than the previous one, 45.5 percent.

The same low rate was seen in the growth figures; in 2014 Turkey's economy grew 3.3 percent.


According to yesterday's statement on the economic growth rate in the first quarter of 2015 as 2.3 percent, it is the proof which shows that the vote rate and economic growth work as the front wheel and rear wheel of a bicycle.

The main reason why parties which wanted to increase their votes establish their last election campaigns on economy, rather than economic promises. Because a promise to increase the national income, at the same time says that the individual income will also increase.

Before the election period, in the interest and Central Bank discussions, the topic that was always focused on was the economic growth. It was mentioned that economic growth should be taken by the political and economic actors as one of the prior subjects ; otherwise political stability would be damaged. It is seen that the slowing down of the growth or not actualizing the high growth numbers that Turkey got used to unfortunately changed the voting behavior of the voters.

On the other hand, the welfare loss that emerged due to the slowing down of the economic growth could easily be cleared away at a period when the public finance was strong; especially, the deficit in the budget was low like that.

The reasons to postpone some enhancements requested by the voters should also be spoken.

That's why, in the June 7 elections, whatever degree its success in the economy or the sustainability of the economic growth for AK Party's taking the first place is, we can say that the slowing down of the economic growth was effective in losing the votes.



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