Economic costs of losing political stability could be heavy - ERDAL TANAS KARAGÖL

Economic costs of losing political stability could be heavy

There are important dates in Turkey's economy. One of these is the Menderes period, including the years 1950-1960; the second one is Özal's period that marked the years 1983-1989. The third period is the AK Party rulership that is the last circle of the rising period which started in 2002. The common point of these periods is that they assured economic stability besides the political stability in the country.

If we remember, the change process started in Turkey's economy in the Menderes period, in the years when Özal enabled the economy to integrate with the world. If we still remember the period of Menderes and Özal as the periods of abundance and fertility today, it is because of the fact that the political stability brought a positive power in the economy.

As for the AK Party period, several times we experienced what strong political stability means for the economy. Because in the AK Party rulership, with the political and economic guardianships totally vanished in economic and social areas, the direction of the economy totally changed.

That's why, because of the political stability provided in the AK Party period, the things that are recognized in the economy within 13 years, will certainly take their place in the history of Turkey's economy.

Well, what happened in the AK Party period in Turkey's economy?

With the increase in the Gross Domestic Product, the income per capita rising from 3.490 dollars to 10,000 dollars increased almost thrice. As the global economic crisis influenced many countries since 2008, Turkey's economy was partially effected, since the last quarter of 2009, it became one of the rare countries that could continue its growth.

The perception of the country positively changed and the country's credit rating that was below the level for making investment, in 2012 increased to a level suitable for making investment. While the amount of the foreign investment inflow to the country between 1950-2002 was below $20 billion; in 2006 it was above $20 billion. On the other hand, with the roads, airports, bridges and gigantic projects which are being completed or are still going on, the image and perception of the country changed.

With the projects which had been started in the energy sector, important steps were taken for Turkey's being a global energy center, initially the Southern Gas Corridor (TANAP, Turkish Stream, Kurdish Region in Northern Iraq ) and Energy Market.

In public finance, important changes happened. IMF had to leave the country. The share in the income of the public debt and the deficit in the budget, which had been the reason of the economic crises for years, dropped below the level of the Maastricht criteria used for the EU countries.

All these indicators dropped below the level that all the EU countries admired.

With the progress in the public finance, to be a social state, a silent revolution had been seen with the social aids. The amount of the social aid that was 1.3 billion liras increased to 25 billion liras. And this had important contributions to reduce the poverty.

Geographically surrounded by the political instability, located in a region where a lot of wars take place, in spite of all these, under all conditions increased its export every year. Besides it reached a record amount.

Turkey, as being a member of G-20 countries, has been one of the prominent actors in the world politics. Such that, this success has been approved by being the G-20 chair in 2015.

In the success story that we only mentioned one part of, there is more. Because of the financial term, most of them can be seen as difficult to understand.

But in order to understand how a transformation happened in the Turkish economy in the AK Party period, increasing the expectations and goals of the country and people in the country will be enough.

Once Turkey was a country where people were escaping from and were seeking other places for better lives. But now, it is a country where due to the political stability the economic wealth increased, and people began to return. From a country where people could not be sure about the future, it became a country where people are looking for their future and want to establish their future there.


Well, in spite of all these, what had happened that AK Party lost votes?

Even if the practices in the economy are a reference for AK Party, we can say that in this election period there has been a communication problem to explain what AK Party would do for the economy.

Being mentioned by the opposition parties as the new reforms to be made, many reforms which had been made by AK Party before, unfortunately brought AK Party to a defensive point. This has reversed the existing perception for the AK Party.

When we have a look at factors determining the vote rate some points stand out.

These are, the troubles always voiced about the candidates, the weariness of the organization, the change in the behavior of the Kurdish voters due to different statements and explanations for the resolution process.

And also, we can say that the voter's confidence in the economy is decisive in his political choice. But in the new period, an election result that is open to many developments will harm the economic stability as well.

It is seen that the success that AK Party had in the economy gives voters a considerable amount of confidence. But this confidence, in the new period with a coalition possibility, may reduce the acquisitions in the economy, even lose them.


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