The elections held in the United States affects not only America but the entire world, primarily its economies, international relations, the future of existing global economic institutions, issues of contempt between states and the countries within the sphere of regional conflict.
Hence, all countries are closely watching the results of the elections held in the U.S.
The US will not give up its hegemony in global economy
While the U.S. impacts the global economy with its current fiscal power, however, it manages and directs it through the institutions established by itself and European countries post World War II.
Among all these institutions the IMF is the organization responsible for managing the financial issues and crises that emerge in the global economy. When countries encounter financial crises and struggle to find funds, they appeal to the IMF as a last resort.
Every country has a quota with the IMF, however since the U.S. holds the lion’s share, its words carry heavier weight in the majority-made decisions. Meanwhile, since the U.S. and the EU have cooperated in managing the global economy since after World War II, the president of the IMF is generally European and on the other side, the head of the World Bank is American.
Furthermore, the U.S. is once again present in the World Bank, which provides financing to countries for infrastructure investments and structural problems.
The U.S. has a great presence and influence in many countries, especially the Middle East which has rich energy resources, hence no matter who is elected as president, they won’t give up on these resources.
We see that the U.S., in line with its own economic interests, has adopted a clear attitude in the event that the economic and political order it has established undergoes a change that will prove detrimental to itself. And we clearly saw this during Trump’s term in his attitude against the World Trade Organization.
In recent years of liberalization in world trade, the United States did not hesitate to declare an open trade war with China because of its huge trade deficits when compared to Beijing. With the tariffs it put on Chinese goods, the U.S. openly stated that it doesn’t recognize the World Trade Organization.
Furthermore, theses tariffs on Chinese products are still in place.
Trump or Biden?
As I wrote these lines, the victor of the elections had not been announced. Hence, the answer of whether Biden or Trump would be president was still ambiguous.
However, one thing is for certain; no matter who is elected president, the next incumbent cannot give up its weight the U.S. has in global economy, their influence in politics and international relations, and especially their opportunity to manage global organizations and institutions.
Another serious matter of concern for the United States is China: its economic growth rates in recent years, its motivation to rise to number 1 in the global economy with its increasing GDP, and its increasing visibility in world trade due to its surplus.
Finally, as China is planning on re-launching the historical Silk Road, which is increasingly gaining significance in determining global trade, the power balance could shift in favor of China in this period. Hence, we can predict that the new U.S. president will take serious steps to ensure that these said changes don’t come to pass.