What's behind US intel allegations about possible Russian invasion of Ukraine? - BÜLENT ORAKOĞLU

What's behind US intel allegations about possible Russian invasion of Ukraine?

The footage that emerged showing ballistic missiles and snipers dispatched by Russia to the Ukrainian border shocked the world. It is alleged that Russia is preparing for a major conflict that could trigger World War III. Western media claimed that Moscow was preparing for the coming war. Footage showing Russian train-mounted missiles and military equipment being transported to the Ukrainian border was presented as proof.

While footage showed the Iskender-M launchers being taken to the border by train, other images were also shared showing the sniper teams that are reportedly dispatched to the vicinity of the conflict zone.

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have recently reached a fever pitch after NATO and the U.S. got involved.

While U.S. and British intelligence sources revealed that Russia will "attack Ukraine in a few days" last week, it was reported that the Kremlin also moved a ballistic missile launcher to the border.


Are allegations that Russia is preparing for World War III part of a perception operation by the U.S. and UK intelligence services?

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov held a press conference after meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Geneva, Switzerland.

U.S. Secretary of State Blinken asked Russia to de-escalate tensions by withdrawing its troops from the Ukrainian border, but warned that if the aggression continues, Washington will continue to stand by Ukraine.

"If any of Russia’s military forces move across the Ukrainian border, that’s a renewed invasion. It will be met with a swift, severe and a united response from the United States and our partners and allies," he said.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has repeatedly stated that they do not intend to attack Ukraine, that they have never officially threatened the Ukrainian people. Although they made public statements, "the current hysteria of their Western colleagues, US and British intelligence services is not to provoke Ukraine's use of force in the Donbas, but at least to conceal the line of the Kiev administration to sabotage the MINSK agreements." He called on Ukraine to influence Ukraine to implement the Minsk agreements.

Will Russia occupy Ukraine?

The first target of Russia's military buildups in Ukraine's border regions is the possibility of Ukraine's entry into NATO, which is expressed as Russia's red line. The second goal of these military buildups on the Ukraine border by Russia is to make some concessions from the West, especially on NATO's Eastern Europe policy. For this reason, unless a very serious provocation such as Ukraine's NATO membership comes against Russia by the USA and Ukraine, it should not be expected that Russia will invade and take a step towards Ukraine in the current situation. The probability of a dramatic step to increase tensions from the USA and Ukraine is very low. While Ukraine takes a defensive position against Russia, the USA seems to avoid statements and steps that will provoke Russia. Therefore, it can be said that Russia's aim is to make concessions on issues such as economic sanctions and military cooperation between NATO and Ukraine, rather than invading Ukraine. The statements of Putin and Lavrov on the subject are also in this direction. In this respect, the Russian military build-up concentrated on the Ukrainian border should be regarded as a message to the other side that all options are on the table, rather than a real preparation for an invasion. Despite the fact that the main target of the U.S.'s latest security strategy is China, security experts deem the latest move as "preventing Europe from opening up to Russia," as the U.S. and Western countries send troops to the Ukraine border in order not to be one step ahead of Russia.


Erdoğan calls for mediation between Russia and Ukraine

In his statement on the tensions between Russia and Ukraine, President Erdoğan said the following: “Beware of border violations in the region between Russia and Ukraine, any development that leads to an invasion or a war will constitute a very serious violation of the peace of the region. As this will seriously disturb the region, we, as Turkey, do not accept the emergence of unrest here. Turkey has relations with Russia in a peaceful, harmonized way that has never been seen in its history. This is on a political, military, economic and cultural basis, and Russia-Turkey relations continue to develop in all these fields. We have good relations with Ukraine in the same vein, politically, militarily, economically and culturally. We cannot accept that these positive developments have turned into negativity between Russia and Ukraine. Therefore, we can be a mediator for peace between Russia and Ukraine, especially for peace to prevail.”

In the statements made by experts on this subject, it was pointed that it was essential for Turkey’s National Security that Ankara should absolutely play the role of mediator. There would be the Syria-Iraq front to the south and great turmoil up north, where any interference of the Black Sea will leave Turkey in two fronts. This would completely disrupt Turkey's important geopolitical position. If Turkey can establish this balance – which it has maintained for so long - it will yield very positive results. Moreover, the Black Sea is under Turkey’s control. We have a very strong navy. We also have the longest coastline. For this reason, it was also noted by experts that such mediation initiatives would be very beneficial for Turkey.

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