Despite the nuisances, rise and falls that smell like crisis, an election government has been established within a complete frame of legitimacy. It's acting in the frame of the verdicts anticipated by the political system.
The display, which will be revealed after the elections, and what kind of a government model will this display allow are the important matters.
We've once again tested the difficulties of establishing a coalition government with the existing political array and conflicting culture following the June elections.
Will we encounter coalition conditions once again after the November elections, or, will AK Party reach the number of parliamentarians enough to establish a government alone?
This is the actual question of the elections.
However, it's not possible to answer this question and especially to make out the election results from the point of the government model.
Researches and researchers' evaluations are showing the voting rates related with parties are not changing fast. For example, according to Adil Gür's recent evaluation, the voting estimations for parties are; 42-43 % AK Party, 26-27% CHP, 13-14% MHP and 12-13 % HDP. We can see that while MHP is slightly moving down, the other parties are slightly moving up. Even if the election results are to appear like this, it's still not possible to make out the government model beforehand. While AK Party might become a single rulership with 42, in accordance to the parliamentarian distribution, they might also fail to obtain the majority in the Parliament with a 43% voting rate.
Then, what will be arbiter?
When we observe, four elements, which might designate the behavior of the voters, are catching our eyes.
The first one is the “stability” factor. Or it's the question of how arbiter is the nuisance over stability/instability. One of the main conditions for AK Party to increase their voting rates and regain the voters they've lost is the highlighting of the instability concern especially in the mid-class and conservative segment.
The second one is related with the progress of the Kurdish issue. The violence environment, terrorist attacks, some type of war, the policy HDP will follow in the government, the attitude on the matter of November 2nd memorandum; might all reflect on the attitude of the voters unexpectedly. AK Party, HDP and MHP are the parties that will be affected by this factor the most. However, it shouldn't be expected for this contagion to reflect the “violence will benefit parties on the edge” formula or the “terror will take votes away from HDP” equation.
The third factor is the fact that the attitudes of the political parties, especially during the coalition negotiations, will be evaluated by the voters between June and November. Without a doubt, “who acted more constructive, reconciliatory and taken responsibility” will be forming one of the backgrounds of the average voter evaluations. In this sense, we can say that CHP and AK Party are one step ahead.
As for the last factor, it was the important factor for the previous elections; Tayyip Erdoğan and AK Party. Their language, whether Erdoğan will go down to the election squares, the themes he will use, the campaign Davutoğlu will conduct; in summary “whether AK Party and the President will make an error or not” will play an arbiter role once again. This factor is important especially from the point of old AK Party voters that voted for HDP and MHP. We already know that the stability emphasis will be the most important matter of the political rulership's election campaign.
However, whether this emphasis will be intertwined with a securist or liberal language is extremely important.
The last round is beginning.