There are three important matters in front of the period defined as New Turkey by the new government, AK Party.
The first one is the economy issue.
One the prominent matters that kept AK Party in the ruling party position for the past 12 years is their success in this field. It is their skill in increasing the national income, creating a middle class, increasing service network and quality, breaking the domestic debt spiral. However, the matter here is not just the skill, but also the appropriate conditions. As a matter of fact, the effect of the international conjuncture in the success table is absolute. High growth rates are provided by the suitability of this conjuncture and the hot money flow.
AK Party needs to preserve its political power and maintain this success in economy.
However, today the international conditions had changed. The conjuncture is pulling down the growth rates. While AK Party"s objectives in 2023, like national income, require a 6% yearly growth rate at least, the market forecasts related with the growth are quite below this.
The first political argument and differentiation within AK Party happening upon this matter is not for nothing. The worry, that it will be impossible to preserve the growth rate with the sharpened rules of the open market, had caused the appearance of the "interventionist pursuits" within the ruling party circles, and there is a tension within AK Party regarding this matter.
The direction taken by AK Party in the forthcoming period, especially in 2015 elections, will be indicative in every sense.
While also including serious risks, the chosen path will be affecting the acceleration of success or failure in economic and political fields.
The second one is the foreign policy.
In AK Party rulership, the identity-forming functions of the foreign policy, which feeds the communal self-confidence renewal, are taken into consideration. And on top of that, if the depth of the multiaxial conflicts happening in the region and the contradictory benefit differentiations are also taken into consideration, then the possible position of the political rulership against new situations and problems will become indicative in many aspects.
The passive power policy, which is multi axial, multi-instrumental, pursues balance and highlights the merits of democracy, conducted by Turkey is presenting an image of being blocked up with the recent developments in the region. Thus, Turkey"s engagement regarding the Syria matter, Turkey"s distance and balance worry against Iran regarding the region policies, Turkey"s pursuit of pluralism in the Sunni field and Turkey"s support to the Muslim Brotherhood line are causing Turkey to experience stiffness against the benefit partnership or collaboration, which is formed around the ISIL issue and extends from Iran to the U.S.A. The final stage of the Arabic Spring, in which Turkey is included indirectly and as of today paved the way for the formation of bridges between Shiah forces, West and Syria, is pointing at nuisances from the point of Turkey.
It"s clear that all these matters are pointing at the opposite possibilities of necessities like relations with the West and restoring the disrupted image, the balance and effective use of instruments.
Possibly, the political will knows that the steps and the attitude that will be taken in this matter will also affect Turkey"s view on itself and the views directed at Turkey in a radical way.
This stage is critical.
Without a doubt, the third one is the Kurdish issue and the Resolution Process.
In this matter, without a doubt, the indicator of political will, political intention and domestic conditions are quite positive. The legislation of the Frame Law, the statement of Besir Atalay in his final days as the Deputy Prime Minister, the government program that gives a special place for the Resolution Process and names the Kurdish issue for the first time, the positive but also cautionary statements given by Öcalan time to time, are all pointing out the fact that this matter will be the most important carrier of democracy in the forthcoming period.
On top of this, it"s clear that we are facing a dynamic and changeable issue.
The negotiation expectation, which is rising at the Kurdish side and which is evaded at the state side, is one of the upcoming crisis focuses.
Besides, the Rojawa factor, the independency inclination of the Northern Iraq Kurdish Government, the Kurdish armed forces, from the Peshmerga to the PKK, becoming the essential land force in the struggle against ISIL, had paved the way for the politicization of the Kurds" living area in new aspects and the evaluation of Kurds in a political sense. Turkey"s Kurdish issue and the Kurdish area issue in the region had begun to be something more than being two separate projects. It"s clear that the choice of Turkey, which is between the two choices as though it"s resisting to this development or keeping pace with it and is staying close to the resisting option, is extremely critical for the country and Middle East in terms of democracy.
Resolving the polarization and reducing the authoritativeness arguments, the jurisdiction issue and the struggle with the parallel structure within law are, of course, essential political matters.
But the trio above will be forming the main orbit.