After the elections, it is always helpful to review the vote range of the candidates, because each range provides a snapshot of the candidates and the underlying political party or tendency in his or her own background.
When we consider the 52% from this point of view, it is a great achievement for AK Party, but it might be that party members were conditioned to achieve a bigger number and indeed, they could get a better result.
That the roof candidate of the CHP-MHP stays behind the 5 percent of the total votes of both parties is a great defeat; however, the 5 percent interval is not that big to lead the parties for a search of innovation. For that reason, Kiliçdaroglu and Bahçeli"s election comments were quite illustrative of a "political shame".
That"s why on the night of the election day during his speech, Bahçeli was so mad that he put the blame of the election results on the elector. He said, "He gained haraam (Islamically forbidden) not halaal (permitted). It means that corruptions have been approved. "Having said thus, he indirectly labeled 50 percent of the voters as being a robber and immoral, while closing his eyes to his own responsibilities.
As for the HDP, whether people like this party or not, with its 40% rise in its vote rate, it has been of the most noticeable actors of this election. Behind this increase among the probabilities ranging from its reaction to the political authority or its retreat from opposition with an endeavor to hold a new route, which seems to be the "good" and serious one because such probability underlines a new political search, the necessity for change of the opposition and the need for pluralism.
There is no doubt that besides all these, the low attendance to the elections was also a critical factor. In my opinion, among the reasons as to why the attendance rate decreased from 80% down nearby 70% is because of the unfavorable climate conditions and the prejudgments prior to the elections rather than the political languor. In the next elections, which will be held after 9 months, it won"t be any surprising that this rate will spectacularly increase.
Seeking shelter behind the low attendance rate in explaining the low vote rates or producing an excuse from this, political parties have to seriously take this into their account.
In case the attendance will be just was on March, the current equation today will be different, according to experts" opinion.
For example, Adil Gür says that in a case like this, AK Party will get 55% and the roof candidate will 34% and HDP will hit around 11%.
Indeed, considering the picture by region, it is possible to say that the attendance rate of the AK Party elector is less than that of the CHP elector. In the Mediterranean and Western regions where MHP and CHP are dominant the attendance rate seems to be higher compared to the rest whereas in East and South where AK Party and HDP are dominant the attendance rate is relatively lower. The first picture just as Adil Gür pointed out indicates that the attendance rate affected AK Party and HDP negatively.
The concrete figures also indicate another thing. In the March 30, in the local elections despite the low attendance rate AK Party got the votes from around 20 million and 500 hundred people in the presidential elections and reached 21 million votes and even so increased them.
The situation is quite the opposite with CHP and MHP. The number of votes both parties have lost is around 4 million. While the both got 19 million votes in the previous elections, this time they only reached around 15 million.
Let"s cut to the chest. This picture tells us three main things.
1. The prevalent party reinforces its own order on a sociological level, too
2. The most challenging problem of the Turkish democratic system alerts with the gap of the opposition and the lack of an opposition policy
3. One of the basic motives of the opponent elector is the new and effective opposition as it manifests today in the HDP votes.
The 2015 elections are likely to be critical for the country. AK Party"s search for a pluralistic constitutional law and its policy with the election results by which it will start the transition into presidential system already seem to be built on the above-mentioned three points.
Prior to the elections, the 9-month period will probably be subjected to similar procedures, because in the aftermath of the presidential elections "the first political spark" is not given in the opposition parties, but in the ruling party. Abdullah Gül, the AK Party Congress, in other words, the discussions circulating around the chair and deputy chairs – just like in the political tradition of the ruling party – are based on the intra-party developments not on the inter-party ones.