The coalition or elections? - ALI BAYRAMOĞLU

The coalition or elections?

There is no doubt that the country is going through critical days in many aspects. While the democratic order is threatened by the jammed Resolution Process and increasing violent acts, the country is also face to face with questions related with the stability of the government.

These two matters possess aspects related to each other. Since it's not possible to prevent terrorist attacks by taking security precautions, the actual and main precaution, the Kurdish issue, should be pulled to the political arena once again. The restoration of the Resolution Process or a beginning of a similar process undoubtedly requires getting rid of the election pressure and the country to resolve the government uncertainty swiftly.

If AK Party-CHP cannot reach an agreement, Turkey will be compelled to go for re-elections. In the terms of urgent issues like the Kurdish issue, which requires taking risks and taking steps, we will be losing time.

Besides, it's highly possible to encounter a similar political display after the elections. At least, the latest public surveys are showing that it's not so easy for AK Party to become a single rulership with the new elections. It's a low possibility for HDP to go below the 10% threshold. As for AK Party; their chances of going over 45% is not quite high.

In such a case, after the elections, will AK Party steer towards establishing the government with MHP, instead of CHP?

We don't assume that MHP will object to becoming a government partner this time. From the point of their own stance and expression, both the stability risk and terrorist attacks will compel MHP to accept being a government partner. Then, can this government provide a democratic stability with sharp policies they will pursue in the Kurdish issue, foreign policy and Rojawa, or at least with a possible secure approach?

This is quite doubtful.

Of course, after the second elections, the AK Party-CHP formula can be attempted again. The 6-month loss in between will be the stern language of the elections campaign, the security problem the elections will especially cause in the Southeast and the arguments over these matters.

If the probability of AK Party's single rulership in the new elections is, for example, one fourth under the given environment and conditions, then the stability factors that could be risked in order to actualize that probability are quite high.

In my opinion, political responsibility necessitates not forcing the election conditions if not compelled to, and put an effort for the establishment of AK Party-CHP government.

This is also valid for the leaders of political parties; it should also be valid for the President.

Besides, this should especially be underlined; for a while now, the relations between the rulership party and the main opposition party had reached the required level in terms of language, approach and cooperation. Who can say that Turkey doesn't need this understanding, which is distant from the conflicting attitude and is not making politics based on wearing the rival out, to gain continuity?

One of the most important matters today is the state of polarization, which from time to time leads to opening the legitimacy arguments. It's certain that the alliance between two different veins and ends will contribute towards the reconciliation culture.

On the other hand, all the topics related with the processing of the political rulership that had been turned into a matter of criticism, all the matters like the President's position, the hegemony of politics, the partisan government structuring, the suitability of the struggle against the Gülen-led group to judicial principles, and the foreign policy, will have the chance to be resolved substantially in a “well-functioning and well-managed coalition government” and in a participative and reconciliatory environment; at least they will stop being a meaningless argument topic.

Since the voters didn't provide the possibility of a single party rulership, and it doesn't seem like they will, then it's essential to leave the half-open door open under these conditions and in this crisis environment.







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