The late Professor Mahir Kaynak, one of the most important figures of Turkish intelligence had said, “ Whoever benefits from the result of an incident, the perpetrators should be searched there.” I believe, a formula stronger than this to solve obscure problems hasn't been found till today. This formula is still being used.
A triple attack
It is hard to speak or write in an environment in which tens of people have died. Even if you are in the right, you may fall into positions, which will put you into the wrong. After all, there is nothing more important than human life, and there is no emotion stronger than the pain human death creates.
The Ankara attack is almost a duplicate of the bombings that took place in Diyarbakir and Suruç, as the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) Co-Chair Selahattin Demirtaş says too. That is to say it was a triple attack. It seems like the number of deaths are higher than those that in the other two attacks. It is a saddening treason that should be cursed.
Trying to receive political benefits from this issue is disgraceful. Yet it will happen, just as it did in after the Diyarbakır and Suruç attacks. The statements made after the blasts and social media notes clearly show that this will be the case.
Everyone should calmly make their evaluations and analyses. Heroically they will again put the blame on the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and the government. Yet, directly blaming the PKK for the attack is effortless, too. Not being able to come up with good solid reasons will only leave accusations hanging.
Who conducted the attack? Who will this attack benefit?
We now know the purpose of those who wrote “ Murderer AK Party” and “Murderer Government” on Twitter just an hour after the attack. It is impossible to change this mentality that would find the AK Party guilty even if a meteor hit the earth.
So what are the odds if we tried to apply Mahir Kaynak's formula on this attack? I believe everyone should be like-minded on the AK Party being at a loss after this attack. The AK Party lost a serious number of votes to the HDP during the June 7 elections. Many told that the perception and emotion that was composed after the Diyarbakır and Suruç attacks affected this vote rate.
Even if the election results weren't affected, the AK Party is the side that was at a loss. Because the political party which is in power is responsible for public order, terrorism and confusion in the country. The people want peace and security. If these aren't provided the price is paid by the government, not the military or the police.
Therefore, it is not logically or politically possible for a group affiliated to the AK Party to have conducted such an attack.
Was it the PKK, or a third party?
Could the PKK have conducted this attack? It is quite possible for a terrorist organization, especially one that is losing, to carry out such an attack. Yet we shouldn't decide so quickly. A short while ago PKK militants planting a bomb in a park in which the HDP was meant to have a meeting shouldn't push us to decide so quick. Could there be others wanting us to put the blame on the PKK/HDP?
What is the possibility that a third party conducted this attack? To solve this problem we should slightly improve Mahir Kaynak's formula: “ Whoever benefits from the result of an incident, the perpetrators should be searched there.” It is certain that the result of the attack benefits the PKK/HDP, but it can be debated whether it would benefit them the most. Then, who would have benefitted the most from this attack?
Can it be the intelligence of another country?
Those who have implicit relations with the PKK and the Revolutionary People's Liberation Party-Front (DHKP-C). Those who oppose the war in Syria. Turkey's greatest competitor in regional politics. The greatest enemy of the powerful Turkey. Countries that battle for power in the Middle East. Those who see Turkey as the only obstacle they have in front of them. Just think broadly.
Who would a stable, uniformed Turkey, that has embraced its people and government bother the most? The total benefits calculated would avail these countries more than it did the PKK/HDP. How many of these countries would have intelligence services that could carry out operations within Turkey? I believe there are quite a few.
Now if it was the PKK, Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and DHKP-C who carried out the triple attacks, the actual perpetrators couldn't be them. If we don't know who we are dealing with, we will always think the organizations are the real offenders. Those who want us to deal with the cat's paw are the owners of the hands that hold those paws.