Ending every war is an agreement; thus this settles post-war balances. The Cold War had ended, but there had been no agreement that finished the war. Because of this, the de facto single-poled world order will be causing regional layouts and powers to appear. This case points at a chaotic period from the point of the world system.
Since the USA had triumphed in the Cold War, then the question “Why didn’t the USA make a binding agreement that will clinch this victory and institute the order after the war?” can be meaningful within this frame. Maybe the USA didn’t steer towards such an agreement, which will take USA’s victory under guarantee, since it might tie down the USA and bring it responsibilities.
We are experiencing the most dramatic transformations; the most shocking and painful results of the post-Cold War in the Middle East. Europe and the past Soviet system had overcome this by somehow re-shaping this transition. If we are to exclude bloody reorganizations, which Muslims like Bosnia had sided with, then Europe had solved the order problem within itself with the USA’s support.
Russia, who, as a nation-state, had never been able to accept retreating to its own borders, had gradually started to show that it could mobilize its potential and transform into a global actor from a regional power. The Crimea and Ukraine crises are the first signs of this. The USA’s quiet attitude at the Crimea crisis can best explain why the USA steered away from binding agreements, in other words, from responsibility.
A similar silence is also valid for Russia. Despite keeping the power of mobility in a regional scale, the fact that Russia is still staying away from a challenging expression is something to be underlined.
The fact, that the chaotic structure had come into play within the global equilibriums in the Middle East with all its components and actors, is the evidence that the old status is impossible.
Two global silences are the point in question. The victors of the global war and the victors of the global new moves are both silent. China’s growth is kept at a corner for now, despite being the most assertive of the possible actors.
The structure, which pursues the balances of World War I by freezing them at the Cold War period, is a nominee for the re-shaping today. Since the rulers and the capacity of the sides are not clear yet, it is possible that at any time, surprising alliances and new balances can be established.
The owners of the Middle East are in a position to let out the most clatter, despite the terrifying silence of the powers outside the region, who are setting up games over and almost gambling on the lands, futures, rights and the wealth possessed by those owners. It could be said that it’s the cry of some kind of desperation. The cry of the revolt against the narrow field, which they had been compressed in by the accumulated anger and history….
Turkey has been one of countries that had let out the most clatter within this tumult. After a century-long silent sleep, Turkey had started to speak in a tone, which themselves and their addressees are not used to. Rather than the meaning of the voiced expression, carrying more importance were the possible results; the things it reminds people of and refers to. With this side of Turkey, they are looking like Russia; unavoidably every expression was going to be integrated with the Cold War and post-Cold War Russian image. Despite its real power and potential, Turkey had kept the power of mobility with the silence of the expression.
While Turkey desires to overcome being compressed for a century, and is just becoming aware of the historical references and obligations, it doesn’t mean that the global actors had forgotten about it. Possibly, this was the aspect unnoticed by the owners of the expression that sounds nice. The attempts of establishing different equilibriums in the Middle East of the USA and different actors within the West had caused new equilibrium pursuits within the system and a mini Cold War period to be experienced.
In the chaotic environment, the aspect all the sides had confederated to, is the prevention of local factors from having a say in the future of the region as an alliance or alone. Turkey, Egypt and Iran are also included in this.
Within this process, when its expression power and potential power had united, it was inevitable that Turkey would attract attention. In this case, the actual problem is the great contradiction between Turkey’s expression power and real power. It was inevitable that, the threat referred to by the potential power, despite the contradiction between the expression power and real power, would render Turkey to be an addressee to a great reaction and punishment.
The reason behind why Turkey had drawn reaction, way over its power, is the inverse proportion between the timing, effect of the expression and its capacity to put this into practice in the field. There is a difference between giving self-confidence to a society and an exaggerated rhetoric language. And the fact that the creators of this language had believed in this before everyone….
What’s happening in the region right now is nothing more than the experiencing of the contradiction between the charm of the expression and the real one.