Will America's long-simmering civil war come to a boil? - ABDULLAH MURADOĞLU

Will America's long-simmering civil war come to a boil?

The Supreme Court overturned women's constitutional right to an abortion in the United States, and it issued a ruling on the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which pleased Republicans and angered Democrats. These two rulings will be among the main items on the agenda for the upcoming mid-term elections in November 2022.

According to the Supreme Court ruling, state legislatures will determine abortion rights in each state. The states in America are a microcosm of the federal government, so each state is subject to its own constitution, government, House of Representatives, Senate, Supreme Court, and its own laws.

Constitutional amendments to abortion laws set by some state legislatures will also be put to a vote in November of this year.

The U.S. Supreme Court consists of nine judges, as the U.S. media classified 6 judges as conservatives and 3 as liberals.

The majority decisions of the judges that carry political consequences, such as the abortion and the Environmental Protection Agency rulings, led to intense controversy.

Justices of the Supreme Court are nominated by U.S. presidents, and those confirmed by the Senate serve for life.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump nominated three conservative justices to fill three vacant seats on the Supreme Court, which altered the balance in the powerful court.

Trump was inaugurated president of the United States even though his opponent surpassed him by about 3 million votes in the 2016 elections, but Republicans held a majority in the Senate under Trump, are represented by fewer voters than Democrats, and wield greater power in federal appointments. These imbalances are due to the flawed electoral system in the United States.

In April, Democrats in the U.S. Congress proposed a bill to expand the court and increase the number of judges from 9 to 13. This proposal was not accepted by Central Democrats, especially U.S. President Joe Biden.

Meanwhile, the Progressive Left wing, which boasts about 100 members in congress, expressed its support for the bill. However, the law was not implemented because of Biden's opposition.

If the bill had been implemented, the liberals would have formed a majority in the Supreme Court, especially since Biden would be nominating 4 justices.

The idea of proposing an increase in the number of members of the U..S Supreme Court returned after the abortion ruling. The downside to this proposal is that it may provoke retaliation. If the Democrats lose the Senate and the White House, then Republicans might do the same.

Another proposal to change the structure of the court is to reduce the term of office of the supreme justices to 18 years.

There is a suggestion that the decisions of the Supreme Court should be made by a conditional majority opinion, and accordingly, majority rulings are based on the consensus of 7 members. Thus, 5 conservative judges must agree with at least 2 liberal judges.

Political polarization in America is deepening, and since it affects the selection of Supreme Court justices, there does not seem to be a possibility of implementing this proposal.

In order for Democrats to implement a proposal to change the court structure, they must either have a qualified majority in the Senate or have the support of enough Republicans.

Another obstacle to the implementation of this proposal is the opposition of the Centrist Democrats to all the initiatives proposed by the leftist wing.

It is noteworthy that some bills drafted by the Biden administration did not pass because of the opposition of one or two Democratic senators.

Meanwhile, conservative justices represent the majority in the Supreme Court, and there is a possibility that some Democrats' proposals will be rejected, on the grounds that they are unconstitutional.

As evidenced by this controversy, there is a democratic crisis in the United States that requires a change of the entire system.

In this context, centrist currents are gradually disappearing while the radical ones in both the Democratic and Republican parties are getting stronger. Both parties have weak alliances of all constituents.

The current situation indicates that there is difficulty in resolving the crisis in the short term. Some analyses also confirm that the Civil War in America has already begun. Most Americans fear that the cold civil war will turn into a hot one.

The insurrection at the U.S. Congress on January 6, 2021, also triggered comments saying: "The monster that America was looking for outside the country is now inside."


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