Is a second American civil war on the horizon? - ABDULLAH MURADOĞLU

Is a second American civil war on the horizon?

The United States experienced a ghastly civil war that lasted between 1861 and 1865. It is estimated that 750,000 people perished in this war, in which states that wanted to secede clashed against those that were pro-Union. Although the Unionists won the civil war, the losers are very much alive today as they manage to maintain their grip on American politics.

Convinced that China is after its throne on the global power stage, the U.S. is focusing all its energy on this “new enemy.” From the 1945s to the early 1990s, a Cold War raged between the U.S.-led Western world and the Soviet Union. The rivalry between China and the U.S. was dubbed the "Cold War 2.0." 

The U.S, which is waging a new cold war against China abroad, is experiencing a serious schism within. According to the most recent analyses, American society is more polarized than ever.

The mainstream Centrist wings of both the Democratic and Republican parties were weakened by extremists on both ends of the spectrum. The shift toward a harder extremist line is much more pronounced in the Republican Party. 

During his single-term U.S. Presidency, Donald Trump heavily wounded the mainstream leadership of the Republican Party, now called the party of Trump after he shaped it in his own image. Losing the Presidency to his rival Joe Biden in the 2020 elections, Trump's influence on the party base has not only not waned, rather it became even more pronounced. The majority of Republican voters blindly believe Trump's claims that the Democrats “stole” the Presidency from him. If there’s a favorite Presidential Republican hopeful for the 2024 elections, it's probably Trump.

The fact that a Trump-affiliated candidate won the governorship race held on November 2 in the State of Virginia, which is ruled by Democrats, came as quite the shock. Trump also has a say in picking candidates who will appear on stage in the 2022 midterm elections. It seems that Trumpism will be the dominant strain among Republicans who will be running for both houses of the U.S. Congress in 2023. 

No U.S. president has ever had the power he does. Trump's sway over the Republican Party backs the view that voters of both parties sharply diverge on most issues. 

According to these analyses, the days of an American government built on the basis of bipartisan rule are numbered. Both constituencies are transforming along more populist lines. Voters of both parties see each other as an existential threat. This transformation gives us a taste of how both the 2022 and 2024 elections will be fought.

There are serious concerns that the radical split of the electorate will bring the country to the brink of a new civil war, dubbed Civil War 2.0. 

According to a recent study by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, 52 percent of Trump voters and 41 percent of Biden voters think it's time to exit  the Union. 

This trend shows that the divide goes beyond mere Republican or Democratic states. 

According to Director Prof. Larry J. Sabato, the divide between Trump and Biden voters is deep, dark, and dangerous. The scope is unprecedented, and will not be easily fixed.

Biden voters view Republicans as fascists, and Trumpists view Democrats as socialists. 

In American political culture, being a Socialist is equivalent to being a Communist. That's why Republicans often see Democrats as would-be supporters of the totalitarian regime of the Soviet Union during the Cold War era. 

Democrats, meanwhile, just as often compare populist Republicans to Hitler and Mussolini. These mutual analogies show that there is a "democracy crisis" in America.

It is said that America's new civil war will be fought not only between states but also within the states themselves, along party lines. 

According to these predictions, a possible new civil war will make the first one look like child’s play in comparison. 

Chauncey Devega's piece in Salon, titled “In the coming second American Civil War, which side are you on?” contains interesting observations. 

On the possibility of a new civil war breaking out, Devega says: “Sure, it's unlikely. You may think it's impossible. But that's always what people think, until it's too late." 

In an Oct. 14 article titled “What would a 21st Century American Civil War look like?” prominent political columnist Lucian K. Truscott IV goes on to share his thoughts on a possible new civil war taking place in America. 

The U.S.’s internal affairs of late seem so out of whack for a country that supposedly wants to bring order to the world.


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